But then again, if anything REALLY big and nasty happens in France between now and the elections, it will boost Le Pen's numbers, and that would hurt Sarkozy.
Royal has hit all the cylinders she can hit. She's declared everything she stands for. Sarkozy's still got some questions surrounding his candidacy - namely, the extent to which Chirac and/or de Villepin will work behind the scenes to damage his candidacy.
Le Pen peaked long ago, unless there is a mass-casualty terror attack in France.
But time does not favor Royal. The French economy has been steadily improving and adding jobs, and the streets have been quiet. The fact that Chirac, whom everyone knows is corrupt as sin, hates Sarkozy actually helps Sarkozy in public opinion: he will not be "More of the same". But of course if the old, dying King decides to lash out at Sarkozy within the power-base it could still cripple him.
Many things are unclear.
With time, Sarkozy will become the natural, obviously leader of the center right, and this harms Chirac's ability to really hurt him internally.
With time, the improving economy makes the Right look smarter and less callous.
With time, the potential for another Islamist explosion increases, and that would hurt Royal.
It will be interesting.
Are you French? Spend a lot of time there?
Today's Figaro shows Villepin cozying up to Sarko and saying that he's a man "constant and faithful". And MAM is saying that she's going to be Sarko's attack dog because it's better for a woman to attack another woman.
Looks to me like Sarko has got his ducks all in a row and their quacking in unison.
Not enough to keep Sarkozy out of the runoff, or to get Le Pen in. Sarkozy's inevitably going to poll higher than any third party candidate in the first round.