One Last Post Mortem (on the 2006 Congressional Elections)

Powerline ^ | 01/09/2007 | Paul Mirengoff

[SirLinksalot]

One last post mortem

Tonight I attended an informal dinner hosted by the Hoover Institution. The topic was the 2006 election. The dinner featured Stanford University political science professor David Brady and MIT political science professor Stephen Ansolabehere. Both are involved in (and the latter is heading) a massive empirical study of the 2006 election based on a survey of about 35,000 voters.

It's early days when it comes to analyzing the data, but here a few of the professsors' observations:

(1) dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq (including dissatisfaction among Republicans) played a huge role in the election, probably accounting for at least half of the six point decline in the Republican share of the vote from 2002,

(2) the economy does not appear to have played a role in the 2006 results,

(3) party affiliation did not seem change much from 2004 to 2006,

(4) the evangelical vote seems to remained stable,

(5) the Republican landslide in 1994 was largely due to a "sorting out" wherein representatives who were too liberal for their district finally paid the price; 2006 less a "sorting" election than just a bad year to be a Republican,

(6) apart from "low hanging fruit" issues like the minimum wage (and putting the war to one side), Republican positions on the big issues remain more popular than Democratic positions,

(7) In light of these, the Republicans have a decent shot at recapturing the House in 2008 unless the war again causes them to have a bad year, but

(8) given the number of Senate seats the Republicans have to hold in 2008, their chances of gaining a majority in that body are not very good.

[trumandogz]

The Senate is lost until 2010 or more likely 2012 and I am not all that sure the Dems willl lose the House until 2010.

[psjones]

Forgot who on Foxnews said it, but getting rid of an incumbent is not that easy. I think those who chose to stay home to teach the republicans a lesson were not looking at the long term effect of what "teaching the party a lesson" could be.

[bilhosty]

The real problems were
1. Iraq.
2 MSM
3. The GOP has just been in for to long and had become unresponsive and out of touch. They also lacked an agenda that would reverberate with he majority. In fact they lacked an agenda period and just did business as usual.

4.Politics is culture not ideology. We have put on a small town and Southern face on the party. We are losing else where. We need a secular and Northern face next year or these losses will be permanent.

I think they do have a chance to regain the house but they will have to reinvent themselves. Sorry guys but I think Giuliani would be a class one party builder. He should run as an "urban Conservative" and take the Southern small town face off of the party. We also need to get some GOP Bankers and investors together and buy ourselves a network and the Chicago Tribune company (and some other media properties as well)./p>

[Recovering_Democrat]

We need a secular and Northern face next year or these losses will be permanent.

I am with you on all your points except this one. The dominant secular/Northern images are ones like Hitlery Clinton, John Kerry, Ted The Swimmer, et al. True, Rudy is from there...but he is the exception. He also won't play very well with the base with his liberal social stances.

I agree we cannot only be a party of "the South", but the answer is not to emblazen a secular face on the national image.

The fact is Republicans are the party of tolerance and diversity--as much so or more than the Democrats. Getting that message out, along with a "Contract with America"-type agenda and a strong national spokesman ought to be our goal.

[Smokin' Joe]

"urban Conservative" =small town moonbat.

One pic of rudy in drag and the votes are gone.

[stevie_d_64]

Sorry guys but I think Giuliani would be a class one party builder. He should run as an "urban Conservative" and take the Southern small town face off of the party.

Sorry, I believe you are wrong...As much as I respect and know Rudy Giuliani is a great and personable guy...He would not get my vote in '08...Nothing will change that, based upon his voting record and positions on certain issues...

And no, I am not a supporter of the other "front runners" for the GOP ticket in '08 either...

Or any of the other cast-offs since this started...

[engrpat]

The GOP has just been in for to long and had become unresponsive and out of touch. They also lacked an agenda that would reverberate with he majority. In fact they lacked an agenda period and just did business as usual.

You are correct. The RNC, Rove, Bush, the congressional leadership failed to answer the democrats, use democrats statements against them or even be aggressive. I think there could be several reasons but I wonder if the desire for amnesty by Bush wasn't one of them. He couldn't get it with the republicans in charge of the House now he doesn't worry about it. Seems strange the one of the first statements after the election by Bush as the fact that now he can get his "comprehensive immigration bill."

[bilhosty]

" He also won't play very well with the base with his liberal social stances."

Some parts of the base will not like his issues. On the other hand he is not as liberal on them as the MSM would like us to believe. He is not for Gay marriage or Open Borders. I think even on this board heis prefered to MCCain. I think Libertarian Conservatives and small business types will not have problems. I think it is just the evangelical types. they will come around when they see the alternative. He will obviously have to have a complimentary running mate. I thought Huckabee would be perfect until I heard his comments on Immigration recently.
If Rudy does not wear well I think the best alternative strategy would be Thompson and Pawlenty. that would give us strength in the north land where we have so many swing voters and would be culturally neutral. We do need to get away from being a Southern party (I live in Georgia).

[bilhosty]

"One pic of rudy in drag and the votes are gone."

There are certain things a Republican can get away with that a Donk can't. That was just a Saturday night live skit and can easily be laughed off. the fact that he has had three wives should tell us something now shouldn't it.

[Smokin' Joe]

Three wives is a difficulty for many. I can understand it, because there are times when the options are not entirely up to one partner, and things can happen which really change a relationship. So much depends on why.

Two would get an easier pass with the electorate, but there are worse things.

A callous attitude toward the RKBA is, imo, unforgiveable in a conservative political sense. (Keep in mind that a multitude vote against Democrats on that one issue alone, all else being more or less equal).

Ambivlence toward abortion is likewise cause for pariahdom, and making people a 'special' group based on behavioural preferences heretofore considered perversion does not sit well with many, either.

He is popular among Eastern urbanites who have yet to convince me (and would probably not be able to do so) that that popularity alone will make my life any better in a rural state which has far fewer people than any borough of New York, especially in view of his stance on the issues noted above. We are not so urbane here, and are thankful we are not.

As for the pic, it could only be explained away if the opportunity is given by the MSM, but regardless, the image will linger on in the psyches of 50 year old welders and farmers in their 70s who are not going to be in a hurry to call any guy in a dress "Mr. President", even if it was a gag.

[Recovering_Democrat]

[Rudy Giuliani] is not for Gay marriage...

Rudy is not exactly a conservative on the issue:

"From a conservative perspective, Giuliani is also on the wrong side of the gay marriage debate, which proved a potent issue in the 2004 election. He opposes a constitutional ban on gay marriage and says he supports “civil unions.”

Rudy apparently supports partial birth abortion:

Giuliani...voiced support for partial-birth abortion, a practice that is opposed by an overwhelming majority of Americans.

Rudy can be labeled as somewhat soft on illegal immigration. Here is a quote from the same article above:

"Although Giuliani, a former prosecutor, has called for tougher security along the U.S.-Mexico border, he has also bragged of providing city services to the multitudes of illegal immigrants flooding New York City."

Source:
Meet the Next President: Giuliani tops in early GOP polls

I don't know how long Rudy will stay at the top in these polls...I may be wrong, but I don't think the base will vote for him if given a choice of a stronger conservative. We see how the "electability" factor worked for John 'effin' Kerry in '04.

[bilhosty]

I have no problem with him on these issues. I either weight them as unimportant or I agree with him. The one exception is immigration. He is for border security. I hope he will strengthen his position on shipping them back and not giving to many services to them. He cut government and taxes in NYC. He was a proven law and order man who was no nonsense with criminals. He was according to David Horowitz's front page the most successful Mayor in US history. Very few President have been trans formative and fewer yet public officials in state or municipal offices as Rudy has been. You would have to go back to Fighting Bob Lafollette to find some one who is not a President who has accomplished as much as Rudy. And this was in the most ungovernable of places. Actually persons like yourself will be very important in a Giuliani Presidency. We have seen Nxon, Ford, Bush 1 and 2 and even Reagan have to shift to the middle taking for granted their Conservative base. With Rudy he would not have to worry about re-election just renomination. So it would probably be a reverse of the norm. A President who would take his moderate supporters for granted but not his Conservative ones. He will plainly scoot to the right to win the nomination and keep his party behind him.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Well we disagree. I believe those issues are important. There is no reason for me to think Rudy would shift to the right after being elected if he won't take the positions of the right before being elected.