I think you are misunderstanding what happens. The breakdown in American politics is not 50-50 R and D, with a bunch of R defectors, as you imply.
The breakdown is 40-40-20. Forty percent are various minorities looking for preferential policies, socialists, leftists, green-wackos, homosexuals, union members, and public employees. In other words Democrats who know they are Democrats.
The Republicans have a base too. Cultural conservatives, most of the military and military families, more religious people, whites, college educated, business achievers, etc. They too know who they are and why.
Then there is this 20% that are "independents". What this means is that they don't have a strong identification with either party. They vote based on things other than clearly understood politics. Don't you know people like this? I certainly do.
They tend not to be able to explain their beliefs in logical terms, but rather "I feel" "he seems like" and other primarily emotional takes on things.
It is this 20% that is up for grabs. The Dem play book was to spend 1 year denouncing the Republicans as "corrupt". The icing on the cake was the homos-outing-homos drama a few weeks before the election.
This entire strategy was not designed to make reasoned arguments to logical thinkers, rather it was designed to sway those "middle of the road" (ie: voters who don't vote based on ideology) to think the the R's are bad.
Just as the teams making it to the Superbowl will have lots of fans from all over, so a consumer 'gestalt' is established in elections.
For thinking ideological voters there were lots of reasons to vote against Kerry. (For instance his stands on the Contras in the 1980s, his support of nuclear freeze).
But these are difficult points to argue with "swing" voters. The winning strategy has to be more like that used by American Idol winners. Build a sympathetic story for your guy, show the others in a unflattering light.
Things like the poorly thought out convention, the windsurfing (used in opposition ads), the flip-flop designation and the six houses debacle where probably more important in defeating Kerry than any policy of his.
The election we just went through the Donks got their theme front and center. "Change". "End of Corruption". And tagged the R's but good with the themes they wanted to tag them with.
So blaming (mythical) Republican voters who were smart enough to know better but voted D anyway is off base. Sure you may find some few of these beasts, but the swing was not made up of defecting Republicans. It was made up of swing voters.
Sadly, in our system, these people decide elections. That's why we need people like Lee Atwater and Karl Rove to win them, and the Donkeys need James Carville and Donna Brazil to win them.
The hardest barrier going forward is the apparent decision by the MSM to move from grudgingly attempting some sort of even handed coverage to outright boosterism for the Donkeys. If this continues in force it remains to be seen if it is possible for any R to win a media dominated race.
Your post number 13 hits the nail squarely on the head.
I'm sick of the RINOs on FR blaming conservatives for what was at its core a failure by Republican leadership...to govern effectively, and to run smart campaigns.
And you're right about the media. There is little pretense of objectivity or fairness left. They have become explicitly "the Democrat Media." If Republicans aren't prepared to deal with that reality, they are prime targets for political destruction.
What beautiful posting of enlightenment!
My way of explaining that breakdown is 40% who blindly vote Democrat and 40% who blindly vote Republican, neither of them really paying attention to what the party is actually doing. Then you have 20% thinking for themselves and voting on actual issues and candidates.
I agree with majority of your post .. though I would change the "(mythical) Republican" part ...
There were many conservatives .. whether they were Constitutional Party, Libertarian Party, Reformer or Independents .. they were very influential to many of those "I feel" voters that you mentioned
Before the election I laughed them off and did not take their threat seriously
I can guarantee, I will not make that mistake again
Or, as some have noted, without the support of the 10% of the voters who are the dumbest, you can't win. This is why all the "atmospherics" are important. Create a mood...win the election. Let the other side create a mood....and you are doomed. The Dems created the mood they needed and are working on the 2008 mood right now. Some Republicans will help them, just as they did last fall. Some of them are conservatives.
My GOODNESS, FRiend, have you been in a timewarp for the last 30 years? THe "old" or MAINSTREAM MEDIA (old or MSM) has been shilling for the socialists for the last 25-40 years AT LEAST!!
some good points but more crabby cranky disenchanted ex-voters out there posturing as principled didn't help!! And the "independents' seem split between the superficial fools you describe and fairly intelligent loners and Libertarians. The latter even vote Republican sometimes, as you know. I guess it boils down to the power of the MSM and when oh when are some deep-pocketed Conservatives going to stoop to TV and buy a network???