"Electric will most likely beat gasoline for very obvious reasons. "
Maybe they are obvious to you, but physics says otherwise.
Internal combustion beats electric every time for like vehicles.
every time.
That's the worst misapplication of basic thermo I've seen in a long time.
The key is "like vehicles". Plug-ins and regular gasoline powered cars are not "like vehicles". Electric plug-in vehicles don't get their energy from generators powered by internal combustion engines burning gasoline. For your argument to work, that's what would have to be happening. But that isn't what is happening. Instead, most energy for electric plug-ins comes from generators being powered via turbines. These are much more efficient than internal combustion engines. So until we have cars running coal-fired gas turbines, you can't say "like vehicles".
And even if we restrict the discussion to non-plug-in hybrids, your argument is still weak since non-electric hybrids have a hard time running their internal combustion engines at optimal RPM all the time. In fact, a simple IC engine car must be "detuned" just to provide enough power at low RPM. A hybrid doesn't have that restriction. The IC engine in the hybrid can be optimized for max efficiency since the electric motor will take care of providing power at low speeds.