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To: Don Joe
Fantastic example of the Delphi Technique!

I had to look that one up.

Delphi method From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search

The Delphi technique is a method for obtaining forecasts from a panel of independent experts over two or more rounds. Experts are asked to predict quantities. After each round, an administrator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts and their reasons for them. When experts’ forecasts have changed little between rounds, the process is stopped and the final round forecasts are combined by averaging. Delphi is based on well-researched principles and provides forecasts that are more accurate than those from unstructured groups (Rowe and Wright 1999, Rowe and Wright 2001).

The technique can be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used in business.

Free software to support Delphi forecasting and references are available on the Principles of Forecasting site.

230 posted on 01/01/2007 1:29:28 PM PST by processing please hold (ROP and Open Borders-a terrorist marriage made in heaven.)
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To: processing please hold

That's how it began life (as a forecasting tool, when originally developed for the feds by RAND), but it has morphed into a form that is very effective for FORMING "consensus".

Check these out:

http://www.eagleforum.org/educate/1998/nov98/focus.html

http://www.exorthodoxforchrist.com/the_delphi_technique_and_rick_warren.htm

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3b2e1f024e20.htm


242 posted on 01/01/2007 2:19:04 PM PST by Don Joe (We've traded the Rule of Law for the Law of Rule.)
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