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To: A. Pole

I am surprised no one has mentioned:

1. Exchange rate anomalies. You read about a factory worker in China earning $2000 a year, who has an apartment, a motorscooter, and a microwave. He doesn't really make $2000 a year, does he?

2. The inevitable rise of wages overseas. IT guys in India are getting 30% increases if they're good. If your current company won't do that, the one across the street will make an offer. Experienced guys can make 15 or 20 lakh. Even factories in China are having to hunt for workers.

3. Problems in other countries. China? In 25 years, a third of the population will be over 60 and the rest will be 60% men and 40% women. Big trouble there. India? Socialist bureaucracy, poor infrastructure, 800 million illiterate poor people with the vote, female infanticide, militant Muslims.

4. And if a foreign country does overcome all its problems, they end up like Europe and Japan, with a declining population of rich goofoffs and a currency so valuable they can't sell any good anyway.

So count your blessings.


127 posted on 12/31/2006 8:37:25 AM PST by proxy_user
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To: proxy_user
China and India will not be able to manufacture stuff for dirt poor wages for ever.

China, due to social pressures from within, will have to return to a social welfare model due to the rise of the Robber Baron and the Party Princeling investor, ripping off the workers and farmers. Don't think reformist young officers don't see this exploitation and won't push for change before China is overtaken by inevitable famine and warlordism. This always happens to China.

India, being a democracy, will be luckier, but will have to adopt some sort of social welfare system due to similar political pressures. India adopted much of the baleful political traditions of Great Britain, so expect socialism to raise taxes as well as cost of production.

After a scare, I think the conventional wisdom may be off. Due to economic pressures, a lot of our old alliances will be cast off, and we will have to build new ones.

Times, they change.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

140 posted on 12/31/2006 9:12:02 AM PST by section9 (Major Motoko Kusanagi says, "Jesus is Coming. Everybody look busy...")
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