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To: neverdem

Interesting rant, but Gordon Chang is always presenting China in the verge of chaos. Is his analysis hype or realistic?


4 posted on 12/30/2006 6:00:07 PM PST by WashingtonSource
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To: WashingtonSource
Interesting rant, but Gordon Chang is always presenting China in the verge of chaos. Is his analysis hype or realistic?

Interestingly enough, the average Chinese obeys or doesn't obey the law based on the likelihood he will be caught. I think his thesis, that Chinese are rapidly losing (without having completely lost) their fear of the government is correct. It's complicated.

On the one hand, they believe what they are taught in school - that without the Communist Party, China would not exist as a unified state today. On the other, they seem to have very little respect for the laws and regulations put out by the government. They will flout the law at every - and I mean every - opportunity. They respect the government, but at the same time, they have very little respect for its edicts.

I think the real problem is that any authoritarian system where major segments of the population have lost their fear of the government faces the challenge of potential competitors for power. Not to remake China as a democracy, but to take the resources that are now monopolized by Communist Party cadres for themselves. In other words, the risk to the Party is that of a dynasty change. Let me just say that dynasty changes in China have tended to be very violent. The 1949 revolution saw millions executed in the immediate aftermath. Given the ruthlessness of the Party, its replacement would have to every bit as ruthless to prevent a counter-revolution.

8 posted on 12/30/2006 6:20:06 PM PST by Zhang Fei
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To: WashingtonSource
Interesting rant, but Gordon Chang is always presenting China in the verge of chaos. Is his analysis hype or realistic?

I'm not really familiar with him. But the story that he relays have been told in other sources.

12 posted on 12/30/2006 6:32:30 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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