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China is China. The remarkable thing about Mao and the supposedly permanent revolution is how very superficial it turned out to be. But given the tremendous social inertia of a country that old and a population that large, we might perhaps have expected it. I hope no one misconstrues this as racist because it isn't, it's a cultural observation, but the Chinese are, broadly speaking, intelligent, shrewd, far-thinking, and some of the finest capitalists the world holds. Their prediliction for collective effort predates communism by more than a millennium and will, IMHO, outlive it. This is not unrelievedly positive - it means, for one thing, that extant individuals are the exception rather than the rule in Chinese society and are often viewed with suspicion. It was they who most caught the attention of the Red Guard during the nightmare years of the Cultural Revolution.

The Chinese don't really think too much about these things because it doesn't do much to improve their material lives, not because they believe in collective efforts. If collective effort were their thing, Communism should have succeeded beyond Marx's wildest dreams in China. The reality is that under Communism, China goofed off because nobody wanted to work harder than the next guy for the same bowl of rice and (Chinese) pickles. Now that you get paid more the harder you work, the ancient Chinese work ethic, not flair for collective work, is coming out of its shell.

Now that it's acceptable to acquire status symbols that flaunt your superior status in life, compared to your neighbors, ordinary Chinese are starting to work long hours - hours that would have been unthinkable in Communist work units. (One upmanship, not humility, is a traditional Chinese value - the first is the reality as practiced over most of Chinese history, whereas the second is the theory taught in Chinese ethics texts).

Bottom line is that Chinese are fiercely entrepreneurial and competitive (with each other). Communism kept this suppressed for a while. It is this competitive spirit that will bring China out of its economic slumber. At the same time it is also what endangers the Party - there are political contenders who see clearly that the Party is just another in a millennia-long line of power-seekers. The idea "I could do that job - probably better" along with sufficient organizational skills and charisma is how previous contenders to the Dragon Throne have won power in the past. The Chinese are attached to the idea that there should be a unitary Chinese state. Historically, they have not exhibited as strong an attachment to the idea that a particular faction should be in charge.

This is why the Party will need to be vigilant to maintain its power. It is also why it seems to overreact to every provocation. Because a single spark can start a prairie fire.

Bottom line is that Chinese are fiercely entrepreneurial and competitive (with each other).

And nationalistic, at least at this moment in their history. I am continually surprised at how the mere mention of Taiwan draws anger in my Chinese business students. They view its quasi-independence as unfinished business, as I suspect many of China's higher strata view the 19th century humiliations that gave the Russians parts of Siberia. There is nothing new about this; nations that see themselves as rising have always wanted to assert their claim on what they see as their rightful share of world spoils. (Think Japan in the first half of the 20th century, Germany prior to the Franco-Prussian war, the U.S. during the Manifest Destiny era.)

The combination of a quarter-century of transformational growth (raising expectations for the continued accrual of national power), perceived historical grievances, a demographically weak Russia and Japan as neighbors, a political system, economy and social cohesion perhaps increasingly held together by bailing wire, a government in need of a diversion for public discontent, and all those excess young men, and it doesn't seem like a "peaceful rise," in the propagandistic government phrasing, is the most likely outcome.