Posted on 12/28/2006 3:56:57 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Washington Proposes North Korea Begin Denuclearization within 2 Months
The US is said to have proposed to North Korea that it take early steps toward denuclearizing within the next two months.
Citing sources in Washington, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reports the US spelled out what those steps are last week at the six-party nuclear talks in Beijing.
Washington wants Pyeongyang to first freeze its nuclear plant in Yongbyon and to reallow international nuclear inspectors into the communist country.
The chief US envoy to the talks, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill reportedly told his North Korean counterpart, Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Gyegwan that the North must also declare and dismantle its nuclear facilities.
The US reportedly promised in return a security guarantee as well as diplomatic and economic concessions.
DEC 27, 2006
Here is another gift U.S. was ready to give away:
US Offers to Remove N. Korea from Terrorist List
The United States has reportedly offered to remove North Korea from its list of countries sponsoring terrorism if the North gives up its nuclear pursuit.
South Korea's chief nuclear delegate Chun Yungwoo says the proposal was one of the incentives the US laid out at the six-party nuclear disarmament talks last week.
Other incentives included a security guarantee, a peace treaty and normalization of relations with the communist regime.
Pyeongyang had long demanded that Washington remove it from the terrorism-sponsoring nations' list.
Chun adds North Korea had promised to study the proposal and bring a response to the next round of negotiations.
DEC 28, 2006
Despite all these, N. Korea slammed U.S. and walked away. Now I am curious about what Demos say about this. Are Demos paying attention or still fighting over who gets what position in Congress?
Ping!
China is seriously annoyed and embarrassed by Pyongyang and there is some indication that they are doing something about it.
We hit Kim in the "toys for Despots" pocket, e.g., consumer goods and cash for his power support, and we keep insisting on 6-party talks. Added to that Kim has some fairly serious health problems.
The ground is moving under Kim's feet, and this might just be the beginning of the end.
As someone close to the action, how do you feel about this?
Even though China is in the best position to engineer change outright, they may also opt for incremental squeezing and seeing what happens along the way.
That means that every player is squeezing N. Korea incrementally, and nobody has a plan to actively engineer a change, coup or otherwise.
No players know when and where the crucial event occurs and initiate a change reaction leading to regime change. We all waking up one morning and scramble to react to the events inside N. Korea. That does not mean that it is long away. I think it could happen next year.
I believe that the most likely time of change is that the steady pressure has relented somewhat and the cornered beast feels that he has beaten the rap as usual and get overly cocky. We are at such a juncture.
Bush lost the mid-term and mellowed his stance. N. Korean regime feels now that it can play the game it has been playing all along and beat the rap again, famine or no famine. However, it is in far worse shape than in mid-90's. It is ripe for the ultimate fall.
NK is NOT going to put down it's nukes and walk away. What idiot in the State Dept or in the WH think they will? Offer all you want... they'll lie if they think it's worth the effort but ultimately they will keep their nukes.
Simple truth always eludes self-proclaimed "complicated minds.":-)
We are likely to all waking wake up one morning and ...
I believe that the most likely time of change is that when the steady pressure has relented somewhat and ...
Some sort of "soft" landing, e.g. Kim's death from health-related causes (Ahem!) and a less oppressive government by the military would probably be the best solution. I don't think anyone wants a violent revolution in North Korea; especially the Chinese.
Soft-landing is what everybody wants, but Kim Jong-il does his best to cut off any avenue to lead to soft-landing. The situation conducive to soft-landing is also a dangerous setting for Kim's regime, because it means that alternative to Kim's regime is available and ready.
That is why the change could come with little warning. It may not be a violent revolution, but it would at least entail short period of intense uncertainty and high anxiety.
IMHO NK will eventually give up their nuke program. However, they will do it by telling us they are dismantling it and will instead sell their weapons to the highest bidding mideast terror group.
As a diversion, Kim will step aside, let NK devolve into turmoil and Kim will take the billions and flee to some European country where he will live out his life in pure decadence.
Do the North Koreans have the same sort of "warlord" tendencies that the Chinese endured for so long?
There's no retirement plan for Kim Jong Il. He has close to 100,000 well trained Special Operations troops, many of whom would scour the earth to find him if he turns his back on them and flees for some French villa. You don't leave men like that out to hang after they revere you as a god. Once the wool is pulled from their eyes, they'll get their revenge, even if it takes years.
??? Is this just guesswork, or are you basing it upon something regional/historic/etc?
Warlord of sorts existed in Korea back in 8~9 century AD. That was long time ago.
Probably.
"??? Is this just guesswork, or are you basing it upon something regional/historic/etc?"
IMHO -- In my humble opinion. I don't see a coup. I don't see China doing too much because of the potential influx of refugees. Same with South Korea. Which to me means either Kim dies or Kim leaves.
My bet is he leaves with a wad of cash.
I guess I just don't see why he'd leave.
Jet I think you like this
Thanks for the ping.
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