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To: secretagent

The link is dated 1998.

They were "killing the messenger" by discrediting the petition's circulator which merely takes attention away from the skepticism that should always follow policy recommendations where the science isn't settled yet.

It wouldn't matter if every scientist agreed on what might happen in the future if even one dissenter proved to be right later on.

Cogitator would have us believe that we are doomed unless we act now; I say, if some of what is being forecast by the loudest among them is halfway likely, then it is already too late to stop it and we should work on living with it.


89 posted on 12/22/2006 8:10:42 AM PST by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Old Professer
Cogitator would have us believe that we are doomed unless we act now; I say, if some of what is being forecast by the loudest among them is halfway likely, then it is already too late to stop it and we should work on living with it.

Cogitator would prefer that people don't mischaracterize his actual positions. Cogitator believes:

1. Anthropogenic global warming is occurring.

2. The future course of AGW scenarios range from annoying to seriously disrupting global civilization. The likely mid-range constitutes significant climate changes, ecological shifts, and reduction of global economic strength.

3. According to the experts, the trajectory of AGW can still be changed, but the window for effective action closes in 10-15 years.

4. Another decade will both confirm the warming trend and allow better predictions of the future course.

5. The best way to deal with AGW is to embark on a restructuring of the national and global energy production systems. This is also prudently necessitated by national security and economic concerns. All useful alternate energy technologies should be considered and the best (based on cost-benefit analysis) pushed toward wider implementation.

6. Emissions controls are unlikely to be effective because of economic/population pressure requiring increasing amounts of energy. Restricting a nation's economic growth is counterproductive, and for developing countries causes human hardship and environmental damage.

7. While it is too late to "stop" AGW, it's not too late to make plans to reduce its impact, particularly if increasingly skillful model predictions indicate an increased likelihood of deleterious or dangerous climate change.

97 posted on 12/22/2006 12:35:40 PM PST by cogitator
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