Nigeria: The next president, perhaps?

AN OBSCURE Muslim state governor looks set to succeed President Olusegun Obasanjo in April's election. The polls would then mark the first time in the history of Africa's most populous country that one civilian has handed over to another. Given the power and money of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), Umaru Yar'Adua now has every chance of being Nigeria's next president.

But the thousands of delegates from the ruling party who voted overwhelmingly for him at this month's primary did so without much enthusiasm. Nigeria is roughly split between a Muslim north and a Christian south; Mr Yar'Adua had the advantage of being the governor of Katsina state, in the north, at a time when the Nigerian elite feels it is the north's turn to hold the presidency after eight years of the evangelical, southern Mr Obasanjo. But in truth Mr Yar'Adua owes his elevation less to geography, popularity or even ability, and far more to the behind-the-scenes machinations of Mr Obasanjo.

The president forced through the nomination by threatening recalcitrant party members with anti-corruption probes and by promising power under the new regime to loyal factions. Mr Obasanjo failed earlier this year to force the national assembly to change the constitution to let him stand for a third term as president himself, and clearly feels that a victorious Mr Yar'Adua would give him the best chance of retaining his power and influence.

Mr Yar'Adua, who suffers from a severe kidney problem, has old ties to Mr Obasanjo: the new man's elder brother was Mr Obasanjo's deputy during his period of military rule in the 1970s. Many disillusioned party members think that Mr Yar'Adua's main usefulness to his patron will be to protect his immunity from prosecution after he leaves office. He has called Mr Obasanjo the “father of democracy and good governance in Nigeria”. As it is, Mr Obasanjo is well set to be a highly influential party chairman, controlling membership and access to party funds.

Many PDP delegates are also irritated by Mr Yar'Adua's choice of running mate, Goodluck Jonathan, a weak state governor who only recently took over after his corrupt predecessor was impeached. The PDP, a broad coalition of ethnic and religious groups, is a formidable electoral machine with deep pockets; it has run Nigeria since the end of military rule in 1999. But unhappiness with the candidates and with Mr Obasanjo's bullying tactics could sap the PDP's strength. “The PDP ticket is a weak one, and the party has to address this fact,” says a senior party member.

Indeed, such is the discontent that if the PDP is to win again, it will probably have to steal a lot more votes than in 2003. Nigeria's police bought 80,000 new guns earlier this year in anticipation of violence at the polls. Mr Yar'Adua could yet face a strong challenge from a “big man” of Nigerian politics, such as Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler and influential northern politician, at the head of a newly united opposition. Atiku Abubakar, Mr Obasanjo's powerful but estranged vice-president, could also line up against him.

Mr Obasanjo has said he does not want “criminals and crooks” inheriting power after he leaves, but Mr Yar'Adua has had to bring in some of the more venal PDP people in government to back him, because they have money and clout. Many who know Mr Yar'Adua well say he is a strong enough person to use his corrupt backers now and dump them later. Whether he can do so will determine whether he has a chance of truly reforming a country still horribly prone to communal violence and racked by corruption.

2 posted on 12/20/2006 12:12:10 PM PST by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)

The country's 50% Muslim at most, but it's being run like an Islmanic state. Nigeria is probably the worst-governed country in the world -- a real kleptocracy.

And if "an obscure muslim state governor" is elected...it will be the first....and LAST time power will be civilly handed over. Muslims don't "hand over" power, once obtained, they kill to keep it....

allah's will, don't you know.

a real kleptocracy

You have that right! I worked there for two years. It is corrupt from the President on down to the cop on the street.

I remember an article by the Economist that dealt with economic figures of Nigeria. The economist said their figures could be off by as much as 25% either way due to the theft and corruption by government officials.

5 posted on 12/20/2006 2:06:13 PM PST by cpdiii (Oil Field Trash and proud of it, Geologist, Pilot, Pharmacist, Iconoclast)

Reminds me of Thaddeus Stevens' description of Lincoln's first Secretary of War, Simon Cameron: "That man would steal a red-hot stove." Obesanjo would steal the hot coals, too.

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