[CodeMasterPhilzar]

Headline #2 is far, far more likely.

First, because it is much easier to build and target a medium to intermediate range missile. (given a relatively heavy first or second generation warhead)

Second, because even in its current early spiral development stages, the missile defense system is capable of protecting the US from a limited attack.

[word_warrior_bob]

I was thinking more on the lines of multiple dirty nukes.