Why do bubble heads always proclaim themselves correct when they have missed out of the biggest housing boom in history and we still haven't seen anything remotely close to the crash they have been predicting. The only people in denial are the bubble heads.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/12/housing-starts-and-completions.html
Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows Starts vs. Completions. Starts have fallen "off a cliff", but completions have just started to fall.
This graph shows starts, completions and residential construction employment. (starts are shifted 6 months into the future). Completions and residential construction employment are highly correlated, and Completions lag Starts by about 6 months. Based on historical correlations, it is reasonable to expect Completions and residential construction employment to follow Starts "off the cliff". This would indicate the loss of 400K to 600K residential construction employment jobs over the next 6 months.
The number of houses on the market has been declining for 5 to 6 months in northern Virginia. Soon it will be below the levels it was when the housing economy slowed down. A George Mason Univ professor predicts prices are headed up in 7 percent the spring due to continuing strong demand "as far as the eye can see."