I thought he was showing part of it was. I thought his main point was just counting on the base of social conservatives, as Rove seems to have assumed, along with appealing to Latinos with amnesty, will get more than 50 percent. I've seen credible analyses attributing frustration with Iraq, scandals, drunken sailor spending, hesitancy on border security and defacto amnesty all combined to make the loss. Check the link in comment# 112.
That, I will buy into.
I hope whatever new Iraq policy Bush is cooking up right now works, or we could really get clobbered in 2008.