Ciro won the early voting by 9 percent not a good sign if you are bonilla.
I didn't like the susa polls.
They had bonilla leading by 4 but hispanics only making up 36 percent of the vote which was way off. This new district is overwhelmingly hispanic and their vote share is far greater than 36 percent.
Bonilla should have spent his money in the primary. Gop still had the house and his name id was the highest.
What I take out of this disastrous election cycle is that dems have a huge advantage.
Dems vote for dems, independents vote for dems 2 to 1 and FAR too many gop vote for blue dogs who put nancy pelosi in power.
When dems kick out all the gop in the northeast you can't have gop voting for blue dogs throughout the rest of the country.
Unless republicans all start voting for republicans and turn out dems will crush the gop and this includes Hillary. Anyone that thinks hillary isn't going to be the next president is foolling themselves.
Prior banned Troll spreading gloom and doom. Get out.
It would appear that the Republicans did really not want to pick up this seat.
SUSA's 2nd poll had 39% Hispanics, and picks Bonilla to get 51%. According to the registry of voters, 35% of voters in THIS CURRENT DISTRICT were Hispanic in the 11/02 and 11/04 General elections (though they were voting in different districts back then).
I expect the 35% is too low an estimate now, because some Hispanics will have re-registered now that Rodriguez is running, but I'll be surprised if it's higher than the low 40's.
The overall population of the district is 65% Hispanic, but that includes lots of kids and lots of people who are not registered to vote -- Hispanics are much less likely to be registered to vote.
A very difficult district to poll -- since people don't know which district they're in because of the redistrictings, you have to use addresses, which means you can only call voters with listed phone numbers -- if voters with unlisted numbers vote differently the poll will be biased.
SurveyUSA did well in the 11/06 Congressional elections -- average error of 3.3 spread points in 30 races (27 of 30 winners picked, 28 of 30 within margin of error). This is a particularly tough district, but it's hard for me to see Bonilla doing worse than he did in the general election last month, when he came within 1.4% of a majority.