[LeGrande]

Is it just my imagination, or are the predictions mellowing? I seem to recall predictions of 10 Degree Centigrade increases within 50 years, now I am seeing predictions of .6 to 2 degrees increase in 100 years. The hockey stick chart alone indicated that we should be 3 or 4 degrees hotter right now (if not more).

I recently read an article where 'scientists' said that aerosols caused more of a cooling than anticipated so they had to scale back their previous predictions. The same goes for predictions in the Antarctic (unaccounted for wind patterns), ocean temperature decreases ('scientists clueless'), lack of hurricanes hitting the US (El nino), failure of the oceans to rise 3 meters (unexplained),etc.

You probably have a very good database of predictions. Is there any way you could list them so that we could keep track of them and see how they pan out?

[cogitator]

I seem to recall predictions of 10 Degree Centigrade increases within 50 years, now I am seeing predictions of .6 to 2 degrees increase in 100 years.

Bad recollection. It was 10 F maximum (6 Centigrade), and even the scientists who generated that estimate took pains to point out that it was the true bound and a couple of basic assumptions had to be modified to get there. According to a story I read recently, the next IPCC report won't change the range of estimates for 2100, but they will indicate there is now greater confidence that a temperature increase in that range will occur. One article (just found, cuz I lahks to check my sahces -- attempting a textual Al Gore accent) indicates near-virtual certainty of a 1.5 C rise by 2100.

There's a prediction for you. Who's going to tell my grandchildren if it was right or not?

You probably have a very good database of predictions.

Not really. I've tried to keep track of the global temperature projections, primarily.