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To: cogitator

The overall trend (from UAH only) is now +0.13 C through 2006. Nice updated chart, though.

I woudn't get too excited over the last two years of data if I were you. Which is why NASA posts trend statistics only for the older (pre-2005) data set.

There is a bit of a problem with 2005 & 2006 data, as the both satellites (NOAA 15 & NOAA16) have unresolved calibration drifts inducing divergence in their temperature data as well as substantial drift from nominal. They are using only information one satellite(NOAA-15) at present. Its deviation however, is indeterminate as NOAA-15 has been showing a substantial drift toward erroneous warmer temperatures.

see for current status of the data. http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/readme.05Dec2006

Update 5 Dec 2006 ******************************* Data products are still 5.2 and 5.1. For LT 5.2 and MT 5.1 we have eliminated the data from NOAA-16 after September 2005 when NOAA-16 began to diverge in a manner that suggested NOAA-16 was having problems. Thus, the data since Oct 2005 is based on NOAA-15. The net effect on this change was to increase post-Oct 2005 temperatures slightly, and thus the global trend is increased by about 0.01 C/decade.

Update 10 Nov 2006 ******************************* Notice that data products are back to version 5.2 for LT and 5.1 for MT and LS. We had hoped to solve the inconsistencies between NOAA-15 and NOAA-16 by this time, but we are still working on the problem. The temperature data for LT and MT are diverging, and we had originally thought that the main error lay with NOAA-15. However, after looking closely, there is evidence that both satellites have calibration drifts. We will assume, therefore, that the best guess is simply the average of the two. This is what is represented in LT 5.2, MT 5.1 and LS 5.1. These datasets have had error statistics already published, so we shall stick with these datasets for a few more months until we get to the bottom of the calibration drifts in the AMSUs. However, the error statistics only cover ther period 1978 - 2004. The last two years cover the period where the two AMSUs are drifting apart, so caution is urged on the most recent data.

Update 6 Oct 2006 ****************************** Another month and the same story, we are still finalizing the production of version 6.0. The values which will be placed on the website contain the earlier v5.2 data through Dec 2004 with the preliminary values from v6.0 from Jan 2005 to the present (Sep 2006). The largest changes occur in the last two years as NOAA-15 was drifting into warmer temperatures and its target temperature effect became evident. Again, this is a preliminary dataset designed only to give an idea of what is going on at the moment. We will update the daily files when the full v6.0 is ready. The monthly gridded files and the uahncdc files also reflect the use of the newer data in 2005 and 2006 only.


135 posted on 12/13/2006 9:15:11 AM PST by ancient_geezer (Don't reform it, Replace it.)
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To: ancient_geezer

Even though the data is useful, the inter-satellite calibration problems (which have dogged them before) show why this data set has to be utilized with awareness of its limits.


136 posted on 12/13/2006 9:52:56 AM PST by cogitator
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