Posted on 12/11/2006 4:43:15 PM PST by Sybeck1
Alexander's term expires soon, but the challenge is formidable
NASHVILLE -- If U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. decides to run again for the Senate in 2008, he'll find a different political landscape. And it could be less hospitable, political experts say.
Even so, the Memphis Democrat's loss by only 2.7 percentage points -- 49,935 votes -- to Republican Bob Corker last month would still leave him a viable candidate to take on Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., whose first term ends in two years.
Ford said he hasn't made his mind up yet about what he'll do when his 10-year career in the House ends next month. He refused to confirm or deny a Los Angeles Times report that he told students at an L.A.-area school last week that he will probably run again in two years.
The newspaper said Ford was in L.A. thanking entertainment- industry supporters of his campaign. He spoke at a Santa Monica elementary school attended by the children of one of his biggest backers, Fox Cable executive Lindsay Gardner.
Asked about the newspaper story, Ford said through his office, "I have no plans to run for political office in two years. However, I won't ever stop working to make Tennessee and America safer and better. ... During this time out of politics, I will find ways to be a part of building a future our kids will be proud to inherit and fight for."
Thanking his supporters in Nashville last month, Ford said he didn't think "politics is out of my blood in any way. The great governor of California said he loves sequels and if I could borrow a line from one of his movies, 'I'll be back'," he said.
While Ford wouldn't have to make a decision as soon as a lesser known candidate, he would have to start laying the groundwork and raising campaign money by mid- to late 2007.
Ford, 36, would likely have more serious opposition for the Democratic nomination. Outgoing state party chairman Bob Tuke, a hard-charging ex-Marine and Nashville lawyer, is considering a race.
Alexander, 66, is almost certain to run again. "I'm serving as if I will be running for re-election and I'll make a decision early next year," he said Thursday.
"The most important thing to me is what I can contribute to my state and to my country. And if I think that I can help clean the air and help create more good jobs, help improve our education system and our ability to compete in the world ... help bring spending under control and do a better job with health care, then I'll run again," he said.
Alexander -- the former two-term governor, U.S. Education secretary and University of Tennessee president -- would be more formidable than Corker. Before the 2006 Senate race, Corker last run statewide 12 years ago and was not well known before a $17 million campaign.
In its first rankings of 2008 Senate races, the respected Cook Political Report puts Alexander's seat in the "Solid Republican" column. Last month, Charlie Cook, editor of the nonpartisan newsletter of electoral politics, said he "would be flabbergasted if Ford" challenges Alexander.
"When you have one statewide loss under your belt, you don't do something like that. Alexander would be too hard to beat," Cook told The Commercial Appeal after the election.
But few Tennessee experts would rule Ford out.
"Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. What we know right now, though, is that Harold Ford Jr. made a pretty good showing last month. He lost, but not by much, and he proved to a lot of people that he can run a smart, energetic campaign," said Middle Tennessee State University professor Ken Blake, director of the statewide MTSU Poll.
"He also got a lot of press ... and despite all the negative ads -- including the infamous 'call me' spot -- he seems to have emerged from the campaign with no major damage to his public image. Those factors should help make him a favorite in the primary" if he runs.
The biggest change in the political climate in two years will be that Democrats -- who captured both houses of Congress last month for the first time in 12 years -- will either share the blame with President Bush if the Iraq War, the economy or other domestic matters worsen, or the credit if they improve. Ford ran hard against Bush's handling of the war and many of the Republican congressional policies.
MTSU political science chairman John Vile said Ford's chief problem is he no longer has a political office to provide constituent services from nor its automatic platform for everything he says.
"In politics, timing can be everything. ... After being defeated by Corker, Ford might be reluctant to take on another opponent he is unlikely to beat. Alexander would have a geographical base in Republican East Tennessee like Corker, and with the benefits of seniority and better recognition to boot," Vile said.
Blake, the MTSU professor, said the "main thing (Ford) has to do, in my view, is stay visible while avoiding screwing up in some spectacular way between now and his next run."
His colleague, Vile, said "Ford might try tying his star to one of the Democratic candidates for president, or serve as a Democratic Party functionary, and if he guesses right -- even if he chose someone who ended up as the vice presidential candidate -- could end up with a Cabinet post if the Democrats win the White House."
Contact Nashville Bureau chief Richard Locker at (615) 255-4923.
Copyright 2006, commercialappeal.com - Memphis, TN. All Rights Reserved.
Man they are just trying to find a key hole to shove this man through to the promise land.
Back in the 90's when Rush started mocking the Democrats as the party of 'style over substance' I laughted and thought it was great theatre. Now I realize how prescient Rush was...
Harold should go work for Playboy.
God forbid he should actually WORK FOR A PAYCHECK!
Didn't the good old republicans lower congress retirement to 8 or 10 years while they were in charge.
Who cares! Get lost, Harold Ford. The only people who care about your political future are the Democrats who write slop in the news media. And we're all supposed to buy it, like stupid peasants.
Harold, try to pass the bar exam, and if you make it, become a tort lawyer.
Can these politicos get real jobs????
Lamar has also been much less of a disappointment then I thought he's be. If he takes a strong stand against this illegal immigrant amnesty over the next term he should really firm up his reelection prospects.
I haven't seen anything mentioned on Free Republic about this, but last week another one of Harold Jr's uncles (Edmond Ford) was indicted on corruption charges. He is a Memphis city councilman.
OH, lawl
Let Ford run again in 2008 and get hammered. Two losses in two years would finish his political career at the ripe old age of 38.
Replace Dean @ DNC?
If he wants to keep his name out there, he should be a consultant on Fox. Speaking of elections, the loss that is really ticking me off is Jim Talent's - he lost because of the Michael J. Fox commercial and because Schumer poured money into the state at the last minute.
I dislike Jim Webb more than I do Harold Ford.
Does anybody believe he will not run again?
Off topic, but I have been meaning to ask... Your tagline... Is this a place you are going or a new grandchild? Or, am I totally off base? LOL
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