Bonilla-Rodriguez race is 'dogfight' to the end [Texas 23]

Express-News Washington Bureau ^ | 12/10/2006 | Gary Martin

[SwinneySwitch]

WASHINGTON — Congressional candidates Henry Bonilla and Ciro Rodriguez are engaged in a ground war in a special election that will decide the last of four House races and determine the final makeup of the new Congress.

The race is being watched closely by national political leaders who have had a vested interest in the outcome of contests in Texas, Louisiana, Ohio and Florida, the latter two under recount and legal challenge.

With a Louisiana runoff between two Democrats held Saturday, the Texas election Tuesday pitting incumbent Republican Rep. Bonilla against challenger Rodriguez could expand the Democrats' majority from 29 to 30 seats.

Republicans and Democrats in San Antonio are marshaling their forces to push their voters to the polls in what experts and analysts say has become a close race.

"Like any special election, especially one which is taking place in the midst of the holiday season, gauging turnout is very tough to do," said Amy Walter with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Walter said making the contest even tougher to handicap is "the fact that both candidates have turned in lackluster campaign performances in the past and neither party feels particularly confident in its nominee."

The campaigns are pulling out all the stops to gain an upper hand, using phone banks and block walkers to get their voters to the polls, said spokesmen for the Bonilla and Rodriguez campaigns.

"It's going to be a dogfight," said Lyle Larson, Bexar County commissioner in Precinct 3 who is helping push conservatives to the polls on behalf of Bonilla.

Television ads attacking Bonilla, a 14-year lawmaker, and Rodriguez, who served eight years in Congress, are being used to energize political partisans.

Still, Bexar County Elections Administrator Jacque Callanen expects a low turnout for the election in San Antonio, which accounts for nearly 60 percent of the district's voters.

Republicans and Democrats agree the race will be determined by the ability of each candidate to get his supporters to the polls.

"It's going to be a ground war, and you need ground troops," said JoAnn Ramon, a Democratic consultant.

Ramon, who advises Precinct 4 Commissioner Tommy Adkisson in the heavily Democratic Southeast Side of San Antonio, said the challenge for Rodriguez is to deliver likely voters.

"The problem is Democrats don't come back for a special election unless you go get them," she said.

Larson's precinct is staunchly conservative and stretches from Nacogdoches Road to Bandera Road from Loop 410 North. It delivered 40 percent of the vote Bonilla received in the Nov. 7 election.

"This northern part of Bexar County has always been his salvation," Larson said. "But he is going to have to get the votes revved up."

Bonilla had a 10-to-1 advantage in cash heading into the election: $955,000 compared with Rodriguez's $91,000.

But Bonilla's advantage has been offset by nearly $1 million in spending by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is staffing the Rodriguez campaign and purchased television time for advertisements.

Both candidates have received help from party heavyweights. Vice President Dick Cheney headlined a fundraiser for Bonilla. House Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has contributed to Rodriguez, and on Sunday former President Clinton stumped for the Democrat in San Antonio.

Most important now, however, is the get-out-the-vote effort, said Larry Hufford, a St. Mary's University political scientist in San Antonio.

"It's turnout. You have to have a grass-roots organization block walking and stopping at every single house," Hufford said.

In a congressional runoff election Saturday in Louisiana, embattled Democratic Rep. William Jefferson fended off a challenge by Democratic state Rep. Karen Carter.

In Sarasota, Fla., Democrat Christine Jennings is asking the courts to order a new election after Republican Vern Buchanan won by 369 votes in a contest that saw massive problems with election machines and thousands of undercounted ballots.

A recount also was ordered after Rep. Deborah Pryce, R-Ohio, defeated her Democratic challenger, Mary Jo Kilroy, by 1,054 votes. The result of that recount is expected to be known this week.

A tight race in North Carolina ended when Democrat Larry Kissell conceded to Republican Rep. Robin Hayes after a recount showed it was unlikely to change the results of the election. Hayes won by 329 votes.

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gmartin@express-news.net

InsideJaime Castillo: Momentum is a fickle thing in politics. 1B

[SwinneySwitch]

"The problem is Democrats don't come back for a special election unless you go get them," she said.

Or mail ballots to cemeteries.

[Racehorse]

Has anyone posted the text of Clinton's speech at Palo Alto College on Sunday? Have links?

I'd like to know what he had to say about Mexico and illegal immigration.

[Ancesthntr]

This race kills me - I used to be in Bonilla's district, and I even get a bunch of mail from him, but the redistricting put me in Lamar Smith's district. I would SOOO love to vote for Henry, but being both alive and a Republican, I'm legally and morally prohibited. Damn!

[DCPatriot]

Hell, I thought this thread was about baseball players. ;^)