"Prices of existing homes drop 3.5% from 2005 By Noelle Knox, USA TODAY"
That's old news. USA Today and FinancialSense like to show hype; if what's really going on isn't hype then they make something up. People who want to justify what they've already decided to think love those guys.
OK, sure, I use their stuff sometimes, I use everyone's sources. I don't have the luxury of just reading only what agrees with what I've decided is true. I only make money when I know what's actually going on. That's why I check everyone out. Then I compare credibility. I kind of like the "the OFHEO's house price index" that came out with "Nationwide, on average, home prices this quarter are up". You can see their take for all regions --here's the numbers.
Please forgive the length of this post but you did ask If I "was sure". FreddieMac's got a slightly different take with the same conclusion as comes with the OFHEO stats:
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Office of the Chief Economist |
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| All Entries Are Percent Changes | New England | Middle Atlantic | South Atlantic | East South Central | West South Central | West North Central | East North Central | Mountain | Pacific | The United States | |
| Quarterly Change | |||||||||||
| Q2 2006-Q3 2006 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | |
| Annualized | |||||||||||
| Quarterly Change | |||||||||||
| Q2 2006-Q3 2006 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | |
| Annual Change | |||||||||||
| Q3 2005-Q3 2006 | 3.7 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 7.9 | |
| 5-Year Change | |||||||||||
| Q3 2001-Q3 2006 | 59.5 | 73.2 | 69.1 | 30.8 | 29.5 | 34.6 | 27.6 | 55.6 | 95.7 | 55.2 | |
| Annualized | |||||||||||
| 5-Year Change | |||||||||||
| Q3 2001-Q3 2006 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 14.4 | 9.2 |
Send comments and questions to chief_economist@freddiemac.com
Although Freddie Mac attempts to provide reliable, useful information in this document, Freddie Mac does not
guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Estimates contained in
this document are those of Freddie Mac currently and are subject to change without notice.
Information from this document may be used with proper attribution. Alteration of this document is strictly prohibited. © 2006 by Freddie Mac.
Something else that makes this stuff more convincing than USA Today is I can check how the numbers are figured:
1. What is the House Price Index?
It is a measure designed to capture changes in the value of single-family homes in the U.S. as a whole, in various regions of the country, and in the individual states and the District of Columbia . The HPI is published by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. OFHEO began publishing the HPI in the fourth quarter of 1995.
CMHPI Data
Freddie Mac's Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI) provides a measure of typical price inflation for houses within the US. Values are calculated quarterly at three levels of geographical aggregation: Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state, and Census Bureau division. A national index defined as a weighted average of the nine Census division indices is also available. The CMHPI is based on an ever expanding combined database that currently numbers more than 31.6 million.