Posted on 12/06/2006 7:28:50 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
Former Fed Chairman Greenspan has recently commented to the effect that the worst of the housing recession is behind us. History is not on the side of this view. Chart 3 shows the peak-to-trough percentage declines in the GDP line item, real residential investment. In the prior nine housing cycles, the average peak-to-trough decline is 24.6%; the median is 22.6%. The peak-to-trough decline to date in the current housing recession is 7.9%. Unless this turns out to be a more moderate than usual housing recession, unlikely given the amount of speculation and leverage involved in the boom, then we have "miles to go" before we can put this housing recession "to sleep." Thus, don't look for the carry trade in housing to turn profitable any time soon...
(Excerpt) Read more at financialsense.com ...
It all runs in cycles. Some will recover and some won't - just like any other cycle.
ping
I lived in three different houses in the past 5 years. Made a sufficient profit (after repairs) with the first two that I can now live in my "dream house" for which I have no plans of leaving!
The northeast, while softer, is no buyer's market.
Not so in the Southeast...ouch!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1749651/posts
The housing corrections will be regional.
Areas of California, Florida will be hit very hard. Some areas have already been going down bigtime like Pheonix. Areas like Naples, FL that are over 50% overvalued are going to be hammered.
Smaller markets will get hit, but will be less drastic(Seattle, DC, Boston, etc...)
Other markets that haven't seen parabolic style gains will be fine.
Hasn't FinancialSense been predicting doom for about 10 years now?
Funny, things are still decent here in North Carolina.
this boom has been far larger and speculative than the preceeding housing runs
Very true...as we are about to find out.
I agree. Although, I think the coming correction will be widespread enough to be considered national.
I don't know. I've only been reading FS for about three years. But they have been right about most all of the predictions I have been paying attention to.
Denial is still running at flood tide in SoCal. When I mention the possibility that prices will be falling I typically hear "5% at the most". Followed by a laundry list of reasons why housing can't possibly be overpriced here.
I recently read this in smartmoney magazine while on a plane ride last week.
Local Market Monitor, a yearly tracker of real estate markets that measures home-sale prices against local incomes/economy to help determine overvalued, undervalued, and fairly valued markets. They tracked over 150 markets in their research using over 15 years of data.
Florida and California account for 24 of the 25 most overvalued markets. According to them, any market more than 30% overvalued is primed for a major correction. In 2003, they only had 8 markets in this description, today, they have 37.
Top overvalued markets:
Naples, FL 94%
Miami 81%
Santa Barbara, CA 76%
San Bernadino, CA 74%
Modesto, CA 73%
Salinas, CA 72%
LA 69%
ones to note also in the above 30% range:
Las Vegas, Reno, Orlando, DC, NYC, Tampa, SF, San Diego, Pheonix, and Honolulu.
Fairly valued (15% overvalued or lower) include:
Chicago, Richmond-VA, Portland, Boulder-CO, Denver, Austin-TX, Albany-NY.
Undervalued (-15% or lower) include:
Columbus-OH, Dallas, Jackson-MS, Montgomery-ALA, Indianapolis, Fayetteville-NC, Memphis
bookmark
Thanks. I recently spoke to a Central Cal coast neighbor that was talking about moving to FLorida.
I had read that not only were the housing prices high, but insurance was astrnomical.
I mentioned that Mississippi or Alabama might be a reasonable alternative. Looks like that could be a good place to relocate without being burned.
Southern Oregon has been "ruint" by CA money. Prices went up by I don't know how much. CA money did it. Now the market is deader than a doornail.
Seattle has been "ruint" by CA money as well.
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