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To: MHGinTN

What is "beyond a reasonable doubt", statistically? 5%? 1%?


9 posted on 12/05/2006 8:46:15 PM PST by patton (Sanctimony frequently reaps its own reward.)
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To: patton

Scientists do not accept or reject findings as a function of probabilities, though they use probabilities every day. It gets somewhat technical, but Godel's incompleteness theorum is ultimately the rationale.


12 posted on 12/05/2006 8:50:16 PM PST by MHGinTN (If you can read this, you've had life support from someone. Promote life support for others.)
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To: patton

the legal definition of "beyond reasonable doubt" is that an ordinary person would act on such a conclusion in the most important areas of their life.

Some people will attempt Everest, secure in the knowledge that it's ten to one that they'll live. Others won't risk getting hit by lightning even under clear skies.

The real issue is this: how bad is it if we guess wrong on global warming and take steps to head off what later turns out to have been not much of a danger? (It costs us some money. Maybe a lot of money.) And, how bad is it if we guess wrong and don't take steps and the climate change gets away from us? (It costs us, for sure, billions of lives and thousands of trillions of dollars.)

So, better safe than sorry.


21 posted on 12/05/2006 9:50:02 PM PST by lostlakehiker (Not So Fast There)
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