[AntiGuv]

MD-08 really isn't all that contorted of a district.

The Dems didn't so much go out of their way to get Morrella as they stopped short of trying to get Bartlett. The MD-08 district had to lose precincts in the 2000 round of redistricting and whether they took the southwest half of MontCo or the southeast half they would've ended up with a more heavily Dem district than the MD-08 district of the Nineties. Now, if it weren't for Morrella the Dems could've tried being more adventurous and went after Bartlett, but as it were MD-08 is a fairly regular district in terms of geography.

The real contortions were with MD-02 and MD-03, and that, of course, was to ensure that the Ehrlich seat would also go Dem:

I personally rather doubt the Dems could wring another seat out of Maryland. I don't see how you get either MD-06 or MD-01 to majority Dem without making one of the six Dem seats a very difficult hold.

[Torie]

The Dems made the Morella seat substantially more Dem by playing with the bounderies at the margin, where the precinct behavior varied hugely. The map masks it all. The Dems with some insanely erose map, could have bagged the Gilchrist east shore district, and left Morella in place until she lost because she was Republican, like in 2006, but there was no practical way, as you suggest, to dislodge the the Republicans from the Bartlett district, without discommoding other Dems, like Cardin, and creating some more "erosity." Far west Maryland is very heavily GOP and geographically rather distant.

[HostileTerritory]

What I want to know is why the Democrats didn't trade some of the Baltimore Co. precincts of MD-3 for some of the Anne Arundel Co. precincts of MD-2. I don't know how those precincts vote, but the results look awful. There must have been some way to create slightly more compact districts without upsetting the partisan balance. Was it all because Cardin and Ruppersburger both come from Baltimore or Baltimore Co.?

[AuH2ORepublican]

The MD-08, as redrawn in 2002, added black precincts in PG County and lost GOP and marginal precincts in northern Montco. The 2000 Bush percentage was reduced from 36% to 31%, and that, along with the fact that the PG voters didn't know Morella and in any event were less likely to split the ballot, allowed Van Hollen to win 52%-47% in 2002.

My point is that the Democrats could have defeated Morella in a district that gave Bush 38% or so had they made the MD-08 less of a Montco CD. For example, had they connected Hagerstown and Frederick through a narrow corridor to western and southern Montco, the CD probably would have given Bush 38% or so but would be extremely difficult for Morella to carry, since 40% or so of the voters would be new to her and she wouldn't be able to outperform the GOP presidential candidate by her usual 15%+; Van Hollen or another Montco Democrat would have probably won it in 2002 and, if Morella pulled off a miracle that year and in 2004, certainly in 2006. That would free up Montco precincts to be appended to white parts of PG and part of Ann Arundel and give Hoyer a lilly-white but solid Democrat CD, which in turn would free up black voters in Hoyer's PG precincts and in South MD to draw a third black-majority CD. The Dems should have drawn (i) a black majority CD for Cummings in western Baltimore, the black suburbs west of the city, and areas with decent-sized black populations in Howard and western Ann Arundel Counties; (ii) a black-majority CD for Wynn in west and south PG, parts of Montco with decent-sized black populations, and all of Charles (30%+ black), St. Mary's (14% black), Somerset (40%+ black) and Worcester (15% black) Counties; and (iii) an open black-majority CD that takes in black parts of PG not in Wynn's CD, all of Calvert, Dorchester and Wicomico Counties, some Democrat portions of Talbot, Caroline, Queen Anne's and Ann Arundel Counties, and heavily black Eastern Baltimore. Those black-majority CDs would include several GOP areas, but the CDs would still give the GOP between 30%-35% in presidential elections.

In addition to the three black-majority CDs and the aforementioned Hoyer and Van Hollen CDs, they could draw CDs for each of Cardin and Ruppersberger by giving Cardin white central Baltimore, the Jewish suburbs north and west of the city, and the less Democratic close-in suburbs in Baltco, as well as part of Ann Arundel, and by giving Ruppersberger the Democrat Baltco suburbs not in Cummings's or Cardin's district, plus most of Howard County and Democrat parts of Harford, Cecil and Kent Counties.

That would leave one single hyper-Republican district stretching from the Panhandle to parts of Talbot and Caroline Counties, but excluding Hagerstown and Frederick cities and Democrat portions of Baltco, Harford, Cecil and Kent. Before you say that "you can't pack enough Republicans into one MD district to make the other 7 comfortably Democrat, think about this: A hyper-GOP district like the one I described would probably have cast 275,000 votes and given Bush 64% in 2000. That would mean that Bush would have gotten a paltry 36% in 2000 in the rest of MD. I think none of the 7 Democrat CDs would have goven Bush as much as 40% (his statewide percentage) in 2000; under the Democrat plan with 6 Dem districts, 3 of them saw Bush get 41% in 2000.