It's surely written is a broad, executive level format. No nuts and bolts, just conceptual issues that would indicate a policymaker level discussion. The distribution was probably a little bigger than you have, but possibly not by much.
I see it as being almost certainly leaked deliberately, with Rummy's agreement if not actually on his own recognizance.
Possible, I suppose. Reflexively, I don't like the concept of a SecDef leaking something to a major newspaper, but these are strange times. In all seriousness, the NYT isn't anywhere Rummy would go happily, but if you're trying to cover your tracks, it's the place to go with classified documents.
iWhere and how would he get information that would allow him to draw these conclusions?
There are competing schools of thought within the government, military, and intelligence circles, all advocating different courses of action. There's no shortage of ideas, but what makes the cut in a PowerPoint briefing is often limited to what the briefee wants to see.
What process led to his writing this memo?
Only Rummy could answer that one. You could speculate anything from "routine" to "pre-planned ass covering".
Was he fired or did he resign?
I'm with you on this one. I think he walked. The timing is simply too poor to be anything other than a moment of passion, take this job and shove it kind of thing.
A possible scenario is him becoming aware that what we were doing wasn't working. ... And the President listened to the 'experts', and was loyal to them.
As far as your first point, I really don't know. I'm sure the book will explain it all, whenever he gets around to writing it. I have a hard time imagining a world where Rummy was faking the funk because it was his job. I think he was a true believer, at least until very close to the end.
As to the second point, 'experts' are relative things, and while you can get to be a very popular analyst in the short run by portraying things in a certain way, sticking to the harsh truth is the better bet. After 4 years of 'tailored' analysis, I think that the harsh truthers are at least being heard again. President Bush is in many ways a great man, but his greatest weakness may be his tendency to show absolute loyalty to "loyal" people that tell him what he wants to hear. Like, people who's first name is "General", for instance.
Rummy would not be the first high government official who was a good soldier for his Administration, who was more than ready to speak his own mind after leaving.
I don't think we'll see him on the talk show circuit anytime soon, but we may see a book or two after Iraq cools off. I doubt Rummy will say anything while troops are still in harms way, if he thinks it will hurt morale.
..I think he was a true believer, at least until very close to the end..
Right. I could have been more clear about that. I'm sure he felt all along that we were on the right track and just had to stay with it. But at some point, maybe 6 months ago, some timing like that, either some particukar event or maybe just an accumulation of events brought him to the conclusion that it was all not working. After that point, he was being a 'good soldier' in the sense that he would not rock the boat publicly; his increasing disagreement would have been privately communicated.
And I'll bet the 'publication' of the memo was probably cleared with Bush, or in co-operation with him. If I'm GWB and Sec Def resigns because he's become fed up with an Iraq strategy that he no longer believes in, what are my options? I know Rumsfeld is more loyal to the country that he is to me, and will not be silent about his views of what will best serve the national interest. The way to best mitigate the political damage is to let it be known in advance that Rumsfeld was considering a new strategy, and that the President himself is 'open' to considering these new ideas.
I myself have a hard time thinking that Donald Rumsfeld would resort to a leak behind his boss's back under any circumstances. I have to think it was co-ordinated with the White House... but as you say, 'when he writes his book, we'll know ..'