There are two separate issues.
THE IRAQI MILITARY *CAN* FIGHT TO PREVENT A COUP D' ETAT AND IN CASE OF A FOREIGN INVASION, MIGHT, GIVEN ENOUGH US SUPPORT, REPEL THE ENEMY.
Hence, in a conventional war, it might be true that the Iraqi Military can be ready in 7 months.
THe Iraqi National Police are a different thing. They are responsible for LOCAL Peace and Order and all indicators tell us that they are practically helpless, especially in the SUNNI Triangle area. These are the front line fighters against daily murders and terrorism and they seem to be unable to do their job for several reasons ---
* They are themselves being targeted for killing.
* Corruption and Sectarian support
* Not enough training and equipment.
It is the Iraqi Police that will be the wildcard here. Unless they are able to handle local peace and order, we'll still have the same level of violence we are seeing now.
We could back the Shia PROVIDED that we keep Mookie out of the picture and let the government take the Sunnis to the cleaners and provided that the Shia did not free the Sunnis completely out of the government. My guess is that we have been demanding a hand for them not so much because thy were really a threat but because the Saudis have been behind them.