All right by me.
They need to have the ability, desire, and the firepower.
Maliki would be insane to ship the US out too soon....his own head is on the block. He needs Saddam dead, imho. He also needs US airpower and logistics to remain.
They'll have the firepower and limited ability but I have strong doubts about their desire.
If he is smart, he will flee before SHTF.
Saddam will be dead by early 2007.
As for the rest, Maliki doesn't need the U.S. anymore. He's got enough Shia backing, especially from the more heavily armed contingents, to remain in power. Remember, this is Iraq, not a conventional battlefield. U.S. airpower and logistics are nice, but they pale in comparison to having men on the streets enforcing your will the old fashioned way. Once he controls the Ministry of the Interior and the military, and has the backing of the militias, he's the top dog in Iraq. With U.S. forces out of the way, he'll be free to pacify the Sunnis the Iraqi way.
The Kurds, who have their own police and military, will happily turn a blind eye to the central government's smackdown of the Sunnis. Aside from a few suppressed chuckles, you won't hear a peep out of them. They'll keep Kurdistan quiet, while Maliki cleans the rest of the house.
Maliki's really not in that bad of a position, he's just constrained by the fact that he can't move a company sized element across the street without U.S. approval. Once he has a free hand, that hand will be b%&$@slapping the Sunnis into line, and hard.
He's got Iranian air power and assets all we have to do is leave so they can slaughter the Kurds and Sunnis because people voted for Pelosi.
Right. I guess most people don't know that the great majority of the 150(?)000 troops in Iraq hold in their hand nothing more deadly than a pen. Takes a lot of pencilpushers to keep the speartip sharp. The Iraqis now (I'm guess) are dependent on those same guys, so that means they are supplying a total force that approaches 500,000.