CALIFORNIA VOTER TURNOUT HIGHER THAN SUPPOSED

New West Notes ^ | 11-28-2006 | Bill Bradley

[Amerigomag]

On election day and night — only three weeks ago, although it seems much longer — several people asked me if the turnout would be over 50%. The answer, of course, was of course. But for some time it looked lower, and quite a few people, many of them on a losing campaign or two, went on about this as though it somehow justified their losing. “Schwarzenegger may have won big,” this sentiment went, “but only 35% turned out in Orange County in the lowest statewide turnout ever.” Many thought statewide turnout would be under 50%. But they, perhaps, forgot that nearly half the voters vote by mail now.

Actually, California voter turnout hit 54%, with more votes to count. Orange County is over 50%. It’s not exactly a proud achievement in democracy, but it’s substantially better than the barely more than 50% showings of the 2002 gubernatorial election and the 2005 special election. Considering that the outcome of the governor’s race had been fairly obvious for a few months, Republicans were mortified by their party’s Washington corruption scandals, the stunning disaster of Iraq, and mostly weak candidates, and Democrats confronted with an epically bad campaign at the top of the statewide ticket were left to push an oil tax initiative as a base mobilization device, the turnout is turning out to be not half bad.

[NormsRevenge]

Hey, the dems got just the kind of candidate they wanted.

They could vote for him without having to worry about spending being reeled in or special interests being brought in line with the state's real needs and instead, preferred to just see more dough being tossed in the public feeding trough.

[SierraWasp]

Well... I cain't say nuthin lest I be spit upon as an "ilk" person, runnin a divisive campaign tryin ta split FO an the Grunt!!!

They are exceedingly fearful of becoming devided frum one another and lettin me turn them against each other, ya know?

Now they're gonna be real tore up over this turn-out thing not bein what they been predictin, so they're gonna be feelin extra vulnerable and will NOT have ANY extra sense of humor about what I'ma tellin you.

So stand by... Here comes their reaction!!! Don't say I din't warn ya!!!

Sincerely,

The formidably divisive "ilk" person, Waspman!!!

P.S. Ha Ha Ha!!!

[SierraWasp]

Oops! Fergot the traditional ping job!!!

[calcowgirl]

2006 County Status As of Nov 28, 2006 at 5:04 pm 

County Name               Statewide

2002 Reg'd Voters        15,303,469
2006 Reg'd Voters        15,837,108
Change in Reg'd             533,639
% Change in Reg'd              3.5%

2002 Votes                7,594,228
2006 Votes                8,559,254
Change in Votes             965,026
% Change in Votes             12.7%

2002 % Turnout               49.60%
2006 % Turnout               54.00%
Change in Turnout             4.40%

[calcowgirl]

2006 County Status As of Nov 28, 2006 at 5:04 pm 
REPUBLICAN "LEANING" COUNTIES

County Name           San Diego        Orange     Riverside      Fresno

2002 Reg'd Voters     1,411,808     1,298,892       649,670     344,359
2006 Reg'd Voters     1,381,835     1,497,365       754,986     331,968
Change in Reg'd         -29,973       198,473       105,316     -12,391
% Change in Reg'd         -2.1%         15.3%         16.2%       -3.6%

2002 Votes              683,062       641,784       309,952     155,205
2006 Votes              787,849       755,602       372,836     179,127
Change in Votes         104,787       113,818        62,884      23,922
% Change in Votes         15.3%         17.7%         20.3%       15.4%

2002 % Turnout            48.3%         49.4%         47.7%       45.0%
2006 % Turnout            57.0%         50.5%         49.4%       54.0%
Change in Turnout          8.7%         1.10%          1.7%        9.0%

[calcowgirl]

2006 County Status As of Nov 28, 2006 at 5:04 pm 
DEMOCRAT "LEANING" COUNTIES

County Name         Los Angeles    Sta Clara    Alameda   Ctra Costa   San Fran     Sonoma
                        
2002 Reg'd Voters     3,976,189      731,633    662,339      484,640    449,396    232,808
2006 Reg'd Voters     3,914,138      749,866    678,765      486,441    418,285    234,891
Change in Reg'd         -62,051       18,233     16,426        1,801    -31,111      2,083
% Change in Reg'd         -1.6%         2.5%       2.5%         0.4%      -6.9%       0.9%

2002 Votes            1,768,369      373,267    350,914      268,415    224,990    124,870
2006 Votes            2,013,031      440,578    415,154      299,154    253,093    177,328
Change in Votes         244,662       67,311     64,240       30,739     28,103     52,458
% Change in Votes         13.8%        18.0%      18.3%        11.5%      12.5%      42.0%

2002 % Turnout            44.4%        51.0%      52.9%        55.3%      50.0%      53.6%
2006 % Turnout            51.4%        58.8%      61.2%        61.5%      60.5%      75.5%
Change in Turnout          7.0%         7.8%       8.3%         6.2%      10.5%      21.9%

[calcowgirl]

The GOTV effort was run by Schwarzenegger's campaign and it worked to get Arnold elected, pass the Big-Bang-Bonds, and to defeat Prop 90. To support McClintock and the others, they would have brought out the No-On-Bonds, Yes-On-Prop 90 voters. They were working in direct odds to each other.

-- Steve Schmidt, campaign manager for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, in photo,
on the California Republican Party's $20 million get-out-the-vote effort:

Pre-Election: Schwarzenegger will be "be responsible for the largest GOTV effort in GOP history".

"The turnout program, which has never been done here before, is working. In California, people always hoped that TV drives turnout, and that is demonstrably untrue."

Post Election: "If we had campaigned as a ticket in the traditional sense, it would have only energized Democrats and turned off independents."

[calcowgirl]

Really strange. Today the SOS updated vote counts again and Alameda County adjusted their vote counts down by 109,557 (from 415,154 to 305,597) which takes the overall statewide turnout down to 53.4% (after including a few minor increases from other counties).

[calcowgirl]

And this afternoon they corrected it, adjusting Alameda's votes back UP by 109,557.

Current statewide turnout %: 54.20%