Posted on 11/28/2006 2:00:58 AM PST by BlackJack
No, spending was not up 19%. A survey of shoppers DONE 11/23-11/25 found that people said they expected to spend 19% more. These were not actual spent dollars, but rather, were expctations of spending. There's an enormous difference, especailly when we consider that people tend to be very poor judges of their own behavior.
Note that this error is endemic to this group, and last year saw the same issue: for 2005, the NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION said holdiay Retail sales rose 22% (it didn’t).
Its hard to imagine a 19% increase in spending would lead to triple digit loss for the Dow . . .
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MSM news story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8krzZmaOZBM
Why would DOW go down if weekend sales were up 19% !
Walmart reported sales were down.
Thanks for posting this. I heard that same figure - 19% - on various MSM yesterday as the increase in retail sales for Black Friday and couldn't believe my ears.
I hadn't taken time to parse it to see where this bogus number came from. Thanks for some clues!
Sure, Christmas sales are up.
The democrats won. IMMEDIATELY ALL economic news is good.
(Walmart sales were really about even with previous years highs: .2% difference is what they are comparing it too, but Walmart was very very high last year.
Nineteen percent. That's a big number.
If you got a 19 percent raise, you'd be jumping for joy.
If your property taxes went up 19 percent, you would not be jumping for joy.
Because 19 percent is almost 20 percent, which is a really big number. And if something's going up that much, there's really not much other way to spin it.
It's a big deal. Just ask almost any retailer this past weekend.
Because that's how much more shoppers spent this past Thanksgiving weekend than "last" Thanksgiving weekend — 19 percent more.
His commentary suggests the figure is indeed actual sales rather than a survey of expectations.
I noticed that too. Its amazing that this economy has all of a sudden come out from its rock after 2 years of impressive growth.
I think he is probably refering to this WSJ and Bloomberg story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8krzZmaOZBM
But its based on a phony story:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com
I spoke with the Checker and she said Black Friday wasn't all "that busy because "people can't lay things away anymore".
Wal*Marts disastrous, so-called upscale and trendy ladies clothing line, PLUS eliminating their lay-a-way policy, is a clear signal they are forgetting who brought them to the dance.
They are abandoning their base.
sw
Online sales this Black Friday grew 42 percent to $434 million from last year, according to a comScore Networks study.
Yes, one thing to keep in mind:
Each year, internet sales grow strongly.
Years ago, they were not having a great impact on overall figures, but after years of growth, their impact is growing.
42% growth wasn't a big deal in 1995; today it's monumental.
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