Posted on 11/26/2006 5:52:49 PM PST by longtermmemmory
Turkey is unlikely to join the EU for at least 15 years
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Turkey finally began talks on joining the European Union in October 2005, more than 40 years after it first began to woo the emerging bloc.
Now it seems that things are already going wrong.
What are the main problems? More generally, what are the main arguments for and against Turkish membership of the EU, and how does the accession process work?
Why is Turkey's EU membership bid in trouble?
There are two issues.
TURKISH MARATHON
1959 - Turkey applies for associate membership of EEC
1963 - Association agreement with EEC is signed
1987 - Application for full EEC membership
1995 - Final agreeement on EU-Turkey customs union
1999 - Turkey officially becomes EU candidate
2005 - Formal opening of accession negotiations
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The European Commission says Turkey must open its ports and airports to traffic from EU member Cyprus. Turkey says it will not do this until the EU takes steps to end the Turkish Cypriot community's economic isolation.
The Commission also says that Turkey's efforts to bring its laws into line with European standards have slowed down. It is especially calling on Turkey to repeal a law which it says undermines freedom of speech.
What effect will this have on the progress of the talks?
The European Commission is not at this point recommending slowing down the pace of membership talks.
BBC correspondents in Brussels say a decision to partially suspend the talks could be taken in December.
Will Turkey ever, in fact, join the EU?
These negotiations are an open-ended process, the outcome of which cannot be guaranteed beforehand
Negotiating framework
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Until recently EU officials talked about possible Turkish membership in 10 to 15 years. Recently European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso used the phrase "15 to 20 years".
Some EU states are keen to ensure that Turkey does not feel that the door is being slammed in its face, and that membership remains a real possibility in future.
Other member states have always been rather cool about the idea of Turkish membership.
If Turkey does everything it is asked to, is membership a certainty?
No. The EU describes the negotiations as "an open-ended process, the outcome of which cannot be guaranteed beforehand".
Also, France and Austria have said they will hold referendums on whether to ratify Turkey's accession treaty, if the membership talks ever reach a successful conclusion.
Will Turkey budge on the issue of opening its ports to Cypriot ships?
It says it will not, unless the EU fulfils a commitment to start direct trade with the Turkish Cypriot community. The problem is that Cyprus - an EU member since 2004 - will not agree to this.
The EU's Finnish presidency is busy trying to find a way of ending the deadlock.
What are the arguments against Turkish membership?
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A range of arguments can be heard inside the EU. One is that Turkey is not culturally "European".
Another is that it will cause a wave of Turkish immigrants. A third is that widening the EU to include Turkey will prevent further deepening of political and economic union. A fourth is that Turkey is too big, and will therefore exercise too much power within the EU. A fifth is that it is too poor, and will cost the rest of the EU too much.
The former president of the European Commission, Jacques Delors, once said that the EU was a "Christian club". That view continues to be held in some European Christian Democrat parties.
In Turkey, there is some impatience with the EU's demands for reform, and fear that its insistence on minority rights for the Kurds will cause the country to break up.
What are the arguments in favour of Turkish membership?
One of the main arguments is that it will help forge a bond between the West and the Muslim world, and help Turkey spread stability in the volatile region beyond its eastern and southern borders.
Another is that Turkey's young and increasingly well-educated population can help the EU cope with the problems of an ageing population.
For Turkey, one of the attractions is a further step in its journey of modernisation, which the foundation of the Turkish Republic began. Membership of the EU's single market is a big incentive, as well as the freedom to travel or work in other countries, without applying for a visa.
For the Kurds, who make up 20% of the population, EU membership is a guarantee against discrimination.
Will Turkey's refusal to recognise Cyprus be a problem?
It could soon become a problem.
For the moment the European Union is focusing on fulfilment of Turkey's promise to open its ports - and its airports - to Cypriot traffic.
However, a declaration issued by EU member states in September 2005 says that Turkey must recognise Cyprus before it becomes a member of the EU, and calls on Turkey to normalise relations with all EU member states.
Which countries are in favour of Turkish membership and which are against?
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Facts and figures about potential EU member Turkey
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Cyprus, France, Austria and Denmark are distinctly cool about Turkish membership. Germany's governing Christian Democratic Union also thinks that Turkey should be offered a "privileged partnership" rather than full membership.
The UK, the Scandinavian countries and the states which joined the EU in 2004 are broadly in favour of Turkey's candidacy.
Who took the decision to start entry talks with Turkey?
The key decisions have been taken by leaders of the 25 EU member states. At a summit in Copenhagen in 2002 they promised to open talks "without delay", provided Turkey made sufficient progress on democracy, human rights and legal reforms.
The European Commission published a progress report in 2004, which gave Turkey the thumbs up. Then, in December 2004, the 25 EU leaders said the talks should begin on 3 October 2005.
This deadline was met, just about, when the foreign ministers of all 25 EU states reached a last-minute agreement on a text setting a framework for the negotiations on the evening of 3 October.
What was the problem that almost prevented agreement?
Austria prolonged the negotiations for two reasons. First, it wanted the framework to explicitly mention the possibility that the talks could result in "privileged partnership" rather than full membership. Second, it wanted an explicit mention of the limits to the EU's capacity to absorb new members.
The text finally agreed preserves the original wording that "the shared objective of the negotiations is accession."
But it adds: "While having full regard to all (EU political criteria), including the absorption capacity of the Union, if Turkey is not in a position to assume in full all the obligations of membership it must be ensured that Turkey is fully anchored in the European structures through the strongest possible bond."
TURKEY AND THE EU
LATEST NEWS
Turks stoical about EU report
Brussels sets deadline for Turkey
Turks react to EU report
ANALYSIS
Dimmed hopes
Troubled Turkish bid exposes EU rifts and enlargement fatigue
Turkey's headscarf politics
Generals keep eye on politicians
Turkish Cypriots spurn EU plan
Turks cool towards 'unfaithful' EU
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Recent graduate, 23
I think we have really big problems about freedom of speech and things, but I don't think the EU is being fair.
I think they don't want us as members but they don't want to say so openly, so they find excuses. I used to be hopeful we would join. Now I don't think so. France is very powerful.
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Political adviser, 30 I think Turkey has done everything well on Cyprus and other issues like freedom of speech and human rights. But the EU is not being honest or loyal with us. Of course I want Turkey to join the EU as soon as possible. The EU is best for our future, not the Middle East or anything else. |
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Doctor, 30 I'm not optimistic. The EU is just doing what Cyprus wants. Every year we give something, and they still say it's not enough. Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia are not better than us, but they're Christian. They say they want Turkey, but I know they don't.
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Accountant, 39 The EU doesn't want us. They are all Christian, I don't think they'll accept a Muslim country. Remember the crusaders? Turkey should join the EU because it's a huge market for us. We should be part of that. But it's all a big game for them. I don't think the problems will finish with Cyprus.
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Pensioner, 80
The report is not fair. The things that they ask for from Turkey are very tough. As the Turkish republic, we can't give those things. It's a matter of honour. So I am against the EU. We have been making too many concessions.
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Housewife, 42 Europe is not honest with us and I think there is no need for it - we can take care of ourselves. I pity my country for trying to become a member. Crusaders have been coming here for centuries. They want to divide Turkey. I am afraid that in the next 20 years we will not have a country to leave to our children. |
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Unemployed, 37
The report is not critical, it's routine. Every year they say this kind of thing. The EU is like a parrot. Is our human rights situation any worse than France or Greece? I don't see the difference. We're fed up with it all. Turkey is a pretty democratic country. It's not perfect - but it's better than the US. |
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Student, 22
It has always been the same. They always ask for more from Turkey. They are pushing us too far. The situation recently has put me off the idea of joining. I don't know now if we will, but I don't suppose so.
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Journalist, 22
I was surprised there were not more serious warnings from the EU in the progress report. We Turks who want a more democratic system were expecting it to be more radical. There are still human rights abuses, and the military is still dominant in politics.
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Self-employed, 44 The EU never had bright thoughts about Turkey, so this report was no surprise. I think many things that the EU asks Turkey to do are for Turkey's good in any case. Once we solve these problems, it won't be important if the EU accepts us or not. Text and photos: Sarah Rainsford |
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ping
I don't think it will happen. The large Turkish population would exercise too much power over the established members for them to go along with it.
the Eurocrats think socialism works too.
they must seriously believe that islam is "just another religion" or that with enlightenment Turkey will become atheists like all good socialists.
Also don't forget the links with the Germans during WWII. With Germany and France running the show pretty much, it may be that the EU is little more than cover for closer ties with a familiar German friend.
"Crusaders have been coming here for centuries. They want to divide Turkey."
This is reason enough to deny EU membership. At least until the people are taught they were a Christian country before the Muslim invasions.
Actually, this is a little bit tamer than I had expected. The comment of the final person is probably pretty much on the mark, too.
This is the BBC.
Imagine the stuff the lady doing the interviews did not put in.
I thought it was very tellin that the BBC editors did put in the america bashing.
ping
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