CA: Fewer kids, fewer schools

Sac Bee ^ | 11/25/06 | Peter Hecht

[NormsRevenge]

On the surface, the numbers would hardly seem to furrow any eyebrows -- or fan waves of concern through the state's education community.

The California Legislative Analyst's Office reports that K-12 public school enrollment -- or average daily attendance -- will drop next year by 6,000 students from a total of more than 6 million pupils statewide.

Though seemingly modest, the drop signals considerable challenges for schools as statewide enrollment is expected to continue falling through 2010 as the children of the post World War II baby boom generation move beyond school age.

The statewide numbers may seem insignificant because they balance fast-growing suburban districts such as Elk Grove in Sacramento or the inland empire east of Los Angeles against steady enrollment declines in California's cities and older suburbs.

But don't tell that to Richard Launey, a trustee for the San Juan Unified School District, where K-12 enrollment has dropped from 53,000 to 46,000 over the past eight years. The district has been forced to shut eight elementary schools since 2003.

"It's just a slippery slope," Launey said. "When enrollment declines, ultimately you have to begin to close facilities."

The demographic shift is also a jolt to both the education establishment and state budget officials, who have based financial decisions and school site planning on perpetually rising enrollments. For example, between the 1991-92 and 2001-2002 fiscal years, average daily attendance in California's K-12 schools rose from 5.3 million students to 6.1 million.

The Legislative Analyst's Office says K-12 schools and community colleges, which are expected to see a 38,000-student enrollment drop next year, will lose $80 million to $90 million in funding due to calculations based on attendance levels.

[NormsRevenge]

Fewer kids, fewer schools ... but don't expect the state spending and borrowing to slow down much less reverse course.

[sageb1]

I wonder how the birth rate compares with other states.

[ElkGroveDan]

average daily attendance -- will drop next year by 6,000 students from a total of more than 6 million pupils statewide.

Wait. Let me guess. It will create a situation that can only be remedied with MORE money for schools. Mark my words.

[claptrap]

Fewer minds to subvert to stalinist ideology.

Fewer victims for the pedophile teachers.

Looks like liberalism is kind of self defeating,

But dont tell any liberals lets just let them die out.

[AD from SpringBay]

Fewer children of tax paying adults. Oh what will mamma guv'mint do?

[The Spirit Of Allegiance]

Yeah, watch the Leftist Legislature allocate more money--for SEX ED classes.... That will fix things. Oh, but wait. Planned Parenthood is killing more than 6,000 future students every year in California. Hmmmmm.

[Cogadh na Sith]

I wonder how the birth rate compares with other states.

Legal or illegal aliens?

'Cuz if you factor out illegal alien births, there's like 18 gay couples in the state for every live legal birth!

[sageb1]

I was trying to phrase the question nicely. lol!

[umgud]

will lose $80 million to $90 million in funding due to calculations based on attendance levels......

Sounds like they're gonna need some more money real quick. Better get the voters to float some more bonds.

[Cobra64]

I wrote off CA years ago. And still trying to get my kids out of San Fran and Freemont.

[aberaussie]

I wonder how the birth rate compares with other states.

I understand red states have higher birth rates than blue states....

[elkfersupper]

don't expect the state spending and borrowing to slow down much less reverse course.

Likewise, more and more legislation inhibiting personal freedoms "for the children".

[I_Love_My_Husband]

I'm going to be really bluntly honest here about who is having babies in the state.

Mind you, I'm skewed bc I worked for SFUSD.

Most amount of children in public schools:

*Illegal Hispanics, Illegal Asians are most of them.

*Very few children of gays

*Whites won't really put their kids in urban schools, neither will gays, actually. And these people are leftards. Leftards might work in a public school but they won't send their kids there.

[Joe Anybody]

I have lived in Sacramento for the last 7 years and the place is growing like gangbusters. I would like to see the San Juan Unified data trended against private schools in the same geographical area. I'd bet money that you would see an inverse curve.

[theBuckwheat]

Fewer children mean fewer expenses, so school costs should go down, right? Not in the socialist mentality.

While we homeschooled our daughter, I could not help notice that supporters of the public (factory) schools insisted that two contrary things were true at the same time:

More children in school meant the school needed more (taxpayer-provided) funding.

Homeschooling was detrimental to public schooling because it reduced the school's reimbursement from state funding.

Having heard these two contrary facts being repeated over the years indicates to me that those who detest homeschooling and support the public schools are more concerned about having young minds to indoctrinate and control than they are about education.

This experience leads me to also conclude that when public school enrollment drops for any reason, it will not reduce the school's appetite for tax monies.

[Scotswife]

I wonder when the NEA is going to figure out that supporting abortion wasn't such a bright idea afterall.
Fewer kids = fewer teaching jobs.

[NucSubs]

See, that was my question. How can this be with all the illegal imigration births/children? I thought they were a burden to the Cali system?

In learning mode. That was not sarcasm.