The policy prescription here is to have US troops engage in the whole region. The US does not have the troops to do that, and certainly not the political will. Where we are headed I think is some kind of de facto partition of Iraq and Lebanon.
Israel is on its own. It will need to make Gaza and the West Bank into Bantustans, in the sense of controlling what goes in and out. If successful in that control, then over time, if economic activity is generated in the Bantustans as the violence subsides (if it does), and living standards increase, maybe the Arabs will see the advantages of working out something realistic, since they will have more to lose. Maybe.
Things just aren't working out very well. In any event, neither Israel nor the US is prepared to incur the cost and the body count to remake the region. It just isn't going to happen.
That is who I see it, and call it.
who = how.
But they do have an incentive to pretend. Taking a lesson from North Viet Nam.
Just give the US some face saving way out and then unleash their own brand of Hell.
Of course they are also expert in drawing US concessions in return for the US being allowed some face saving.
A loss loss (in the bargain and in the result)for the US and Israel.
But what of the long term?
Having defeated the US in Iraq and Israel all over the place, does the enemy rest?
Worse is coming. When?