Yeah, I can see that.
Posted on 11/20/2006 11:25:43 AM PST by Toddsterpatriot
Home Sales Fall in Most of the Country This Summer; Leading Indicators Rise
NEW YORK (AP) -- The feeble U.S. housing market showed more frailty in October when home sales plummeted in 38 states, hitting Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California particularly hard, government data showed on Monday.
The once-booming real estate market's persistent weakness over the past year has reined in expectations for economic growth but hasn't been severe enough to offset a rising stock market, lower gas prices and improved consumer expectations.
The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing homes fell in 38 states during the summer. Sales retreated to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.27 million units nationwide, down by 12.7 percent from the same period a year ago. Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California led the declines.
Home prices also dropped: The realtors' survey showed that the midpoint price for an existing home sold during the summer dipped 1.2 percent year over year to $224,900. Some 45 metropolitan areas saw home prices decline.
Meanwhile, the latest report of building permits showed the slowest pace of annual growth in nine years in October. Housing construction slid sharply as builders tried to curb swelling inventories of unsold new and existing homes.
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, said he thinks the housing market still hasn't reached its low point.
"I think the permits numbers point to yet another flight of stairs down on housing before we hit the basement," he said. "On the other side, stocks are rising, consumer confidence is good and jobs are rising. Those factors are keeping this decline in housing contained."
A closely watched indicator of future economic activity release Monday provided further evidence of that trend.
The Conference Board, an industry-backed research group based in New York, reported Monday that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.2 percent in October. Increased real money supply and improved consumer expectations helped offset the sharp decline in housing permits and weaker vendor performance.
"The economy is growing more slowly, but we have yet to have weakness spread beyond housing and motor vehicles to such a degree that we need to fear the proximity of a hard landing," said John Lonski, chief economist of Moody's Investor Service, referring to when the economy turns from growth to a recession.
The housing market slowdown has weighed on the leading indicators index this year. But all told, strengths and weaknesses in the leading indicators have been roughly balanced, according to the Conference Board report. The index stood at 138.3 versus 139.1 in January -- its peak so far this year. The index has declined four of the last seven months.
The Conference Board's labor economist, Ken Goldstein, said the October index suggests "the economy is unlikely either to reheat or to get significantly cooler."
"Instead, the kind of slow growth now being experienced could continue right through the winter and into the spring," Goldstein said.
In another sign of moderating economic growth, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady last month at 5.25 percent for the third straight session. The Fed had raised interest rates 17 times beginning in June 2004 to stave off inflation, before halting its campaign of credit-tightening in August.
home sales plummeted in 38 states
When sales pick up again to 'normal' levels, that is when you can make a fair assessment of how much prices have fallen/risen.
I don't know what you're talking about. Who bought and sold a home in a year?
I personally haven't bought much in the past two years. I couldn't find any bargains and didn't see any real good opportunity. If the situation changes I'm ready to buy, but not now.
If you go back to 2002, the median price was around $150K, now it is at $225K. So we would have to see a 33% drop to get back to that point.
Yeah, I can see that.
Sales are above 'normal' levels. They have just 'plummeted' from the record highs.
Do you understand that you can't use homes that haven't sold yet when you discuss median sales price?
My point was if they bought more than a year ago, they are probably enjoying some of that 50% appreciation that happened the 4 previous years. Most sellers right now are not hurting unless they recently bought their house.
Prices will drop in highly inflated regions next year.
Hmmm... 1.2% drop = $500,000 lost... Guess his real estate porfolio was worth about $41.6 million?
bump
Existing home sales are at 6.3 million. The average level is 3.6 million. They have 'plummeted' from the peak of 7.3 million, just to put this in perspective of where we are at.
Just guessing:
Hawaii, Texas, Washington, Oregon, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alaska, Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado.
If anybody knows for sure, let me know how close I was.
Yeah. They can only get twice what they bought it for six years ago instead of three times as much.
I'm cryin'...
That 1.2% year over year decline means that a person who brought a house a year ago with 5% down, lost 24% of his or her investment. If the stock market dropped 24% in one year, most people would call the decline substantial. They might also use words like "tank," "crash," and "bear."
Yeah, he probably only gained $3 million on his sale instead of $3.5 million. Without more info, that is kind of meaningless. I hear all these stories, but then when you dig into the facts, it is usually not a story of people actually losing money, just not cashing in as much as they would like. Oh there are people who lose, but mostly they are in an unfortunate situation like they lost their job and are forced to sell or foreclose.
See how easy that is for me to believe you or the person who told you? I need a lot more information than what you said to even begin to take your comment seriously.
Think Idaho should be on your list.
We just moved to Maine from Southeastern Ohio where we built a beautiful 2800 sq ft home, 3 bedroom, 2 car garage, with geo-thermal furnace, ash wood though out, ceramic tile in 3 baths and kitchen,on 4.57 acres land with beautiful landscaping which cost us $315,000.00 to build. The house was on the market for 5 1/2 years and only 5 people looked at it. We were forced to sell it for just what we owed on the mortgage $135,000.00 in order to get out of Ohio. The jobs had vanished and people had no money to buy the house. Here in Maine we paid $215,000.00 for 1,175 sq ft and the place is a dump and it is a brand new home. Talk about heart sick. To make matters worse we are living up here in hostile terriorty [democrap country]. The only saving grace is Maine is the most beautiful place on earth. We live on the coast and the beauty will take your breath away.
Absolutely, Completely, Totally meaningless.
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