Posted on 11/19/2006 2:33:56 PM PST by AVNevis
Some of you will probably recall that I entertained a hypothetical notion weeks before Election Day. I asked, 'What Happens in The 19th District When McClintock Wins?' At the time, it looked as if the highly-respected conservative Senator from the Central Coast would be our next Lieutenant Governor and vacate his State Senate seat prompting an open primary election in the early months of 2007. I also presumed my friend and former Assemblyman Tony Stickland would be our next Controller, as he was outpacing Democrat BOE member John Chiang both in fundraising and the polls. Those predictions proved faulty after the unions noticed Angelides was a lost cause and began reinvesting massive amounts of money in IEs for the down ticket Democrats. However, the Republicans' demise on Election Day only slightly augments and temporarily postpones the question I asked back on October 14th.
What happens in the 19th and 24th Districts When McClintock and Gallegly retire?
Yes, the rumors out of the Central Coast are that State Senator Tom McClintock, a man I have admired since my days as one of his college constituents and gubernatorial supporters, will leave public office in 2008 without plans for an immediate return. I hope he publishes an anthology of his writings and speeches. The day after Election Day, I reread many of the speeches he has featured on his website worried that this highly intelligent government watchman would soon be lost to the taxpaying citizens of California. I was heartened by a phone call days later informing me that Tom McClintock has no intention of discontinuing his service and may be founding a nonprofit taxpayer rights and government accountability group. Read: he's not planning to run for Congress.
In addition, everyone and their neighbor in Republican politics is probably now aware that Congressman Elton Gallegly sought to retire from the House earlier in the year and that this created a firestorm in Ventura County Republican politics. Gallegly faced a primary challenge that split the county party. He announced his retirement intentions after filing for re-election and was forced into rerunning. The final day of filing for the primary turned into a mess.
Congressman Gallegly ran for re-election with the intention that the 110th Congress would be his last. By the end of the 110th, he will have loyally served his constituents for twenty years. He will have seen the House historically transferred from Democrat to Republican hands and then back again. Surely, the meager trappings of minority party status further the interest in retirement.
So, Central Coast Republicans have months to speculate on who might enter these two great contests of 2008. Let me offer my preferences.
I would like and suspect that with Gallegly's retirement will come a Strickland candidacy. The Stricklands are a young, ambitious power couple tried and tested by minority party life in Sacramento. Both would be able to serve 24th CD constituents well in the nation's capital for many, many years. Both would be prohibitive favorites for the seat.
But with a Strickland congressional candidacy, what happens to the vacated 19th State Senate District?
Again, there I introduce the desire to see one conservative run. There are many well-heeled liberal Republicans in this district who might easily spoil a primary contest pitting two conservative Republicans against each other. Again, there I would like to see a Mike Stoker candidacy that ended up not coming to pass. Big name backers have already been secured on his behalf that will probably extend their loyalties on to 2008.
Strickland and Stoker will likely be two names we will be reading and hearing a lot about from the Central Coast. I get a strong sense there is local jockeying already taking place between the sides. Look out! This is, as they say, certainly developing...
But perhaps the good news is that Tom may be leaving open the possibility of a 2010 run for Governor by not running for congress. He can run from the platform of an independant taxpayer advocate. We will have to see.
McClintock PING!
PING
Personally, I'd much rather see Tom stay in State government.
Perhaps Duf can run for Congress. ;-)
McClintock Ping List.
Please freepmail me if you want on or off this list
I would too, but I would rather see him in Congress than no office at all (unless he is planning to run for Governor).
He cant win where he is...would have to move to Kern County
McClintock could easily win in Gallegly's district. His State Senate seat covers much of the same area.
I hope he runs for Congress. Absent a major earthquake that drops the entire Bay Area under the ocean, McClintock isn't going to win a statewide race in California. He has among the highest personal approval ratings of a politician in this state, but still can't win.
We all need him.
I understand and share McClintock's frustration with California politics, but we need more like him, not fewer.
Perhaps we could just run Duf off!!! Period!!!
Tom knows the State's problems better than anyone currently in public life and is just wonkish enough to put corrective policies in action in a careful, creative, conservative fashion. He, like Abraham Lincoln before him, will find a niche and fill it with smashingly good results! You'll see!!!
We've all had enough of Duf!!! (but of course you knew that)
Me thinks that someone is going to exaggerated lengths to distance them selves from Southern California if they're calling the 19th District the Central Coast. All but a small portion of the 19th is south of the extended Kern County line to Point Sal and that portion is all interior basin and range, a long way from the ocean.
Both of the Stricklands are inept, corrupt and terrible legislators. They are deeply involved in laundering money to sustain their positions and surround themselves with vile little minions. My opinion of Tom McClintock has plummeted because of his association and support of the Stricklands. The "Central Coast" needs to toss all of them, including Gallegly, out on their ear. Stoker is of the same ilk as near as I can tell.
BTTT
Indeed!
Most of the population (60%) is in Ventura County,
with 35% in Santa Barbara County and 6% in Los Angeles County.
The 19th Senate district is definitely in SoCal, partly inland and partly on the coast.
Even though on the map the northern reaches of the 19th SD look like they might approach
the middle of CA, few people live there compared to the bulk of the district.
"Central Coast" is more appropriate for the 15th SD (San Luis Obispo and Monterey Counties).
The 24th Congressional District overlaps much of the 19th SD but excludes a narrow coastal area
along all of Santa Barbara County and all but a small section of Ventura County, and the 24th CD
includes the rest of the interior of Ventura County.
(effective 02/2002)
% Unit Total % Dem % Rep Black %Black Asian %Asian Latino %Latino District County T Place of all Persons Reg Dem Reg Reg Rep Reg Reg % Gore % Bush Pop Pop Pop Pop Pop Pop 19 Los Angeles C Santa Clarita 27.4 41462 24582 7616 31.0 12651 51.5 40.5 55.9 773 1.9 3036 7.3 4776 11.5 R Remainder 5.7 10078 4959 1597 32.2 2434 49.1 44.7 52.4 350 3.5 1662 16.5 1278 12.7 Sum 51540 29541 9213 31.2 15085 51.1 41.1 55.4 1123 2.2 4698 9.1 6054 11.7 Santa Barbara C Buellton 100.0 3828 2126 734 34.5 986 46.4 40.8 54.5 41 1.1 76 2.0 985 25.7 C Carpinteria 100.0 14194 6931 3124 45.1 2336 33.7 52.0 41.3 165 1.2 444 3.1 6175 43.5 C Lompoc 100.0 41103 17008 7172 42.2 6491 38.2 42.6 53.0 3449 8.4 2191 5.3 15337 37.3 C Santa Barbara 100.0 92325 53428 25862 48.4 14512 27.2 58.6 32.4 2047 2.2 3304 3.6 32330 35.0 C Solvang 100.0 5332 3381 899 26.6 1953 57.8 32.5 63.4 36 0.7 95 1.8 1059 19.9 U Goleta 100.0 55204 34818 14370 41.3 13155 37.8 48.1 45.2 951 1.7 4172 7.6 12326 22.3 U Isla Vista 100.0 18344 19478 8183 42.0 3783 19.4 66.8 19.9 527 2.9 2539 13.8 3671 20.0 U Los Alamos 100.0 1372 699 221 31.6 320 45.8 36.4 60.6 4 0.3 20 1.5 476 34.7 U Mission Canyon 100.0 2610 2086 981 47.0 606 29.1 58.7 31.0 19 0.7 44 1.7 173 6.6 U Mission Hills 100.0 3142 1822 651 35.7 821 45.1 35.3 60.0 144 4.6 142 4.5 640 20.4 U Montecito 100.0 10000 7392 2298 31.1 3607 48.8 41.7 51.9 65 0.7 207 2.1 519 5.2 U Orcutt 30.4 8776 5573 1663 29.8 3047 54.7 29.2 67.8 166 1.9 392 4.5 1065 12.1 U Santa Ynez 100.0 4584 2972 797 26.8 1671 56.2 30.5 65.1 20 0.4 90 2.0 422 9.2 U Summerland 100.0 1545 1177 490 41.6 392 33.3 54.2 37.6 12 0.8 57 3.7 115 7.4 U Toro Canyon 100.0 1697 1101 370 33.6 478 43.4 46.4 48.2 14 0.8 36 2.1 276 16.3 U Vandenberg Vil 100.0 5802 4377 1358 31.0 2269 51.8 33.3 62.9 376 6.5 221 3.8 515 8.9 M Vandenberg AFB 100.0 6151 1284 332 25.9 555 43.2 28.9 69.7 857 13.9 392 6.4 683 11.1 R Remainder 82.9 16754 10280 3366 32.7 4849 47.2 36.7 56.8 147 0.9 356 2.1 3799 22.7 Sum 292763 175933 72871 41.4 61831 35.1 49.6 43.1 9040 3.1 14778 5.0 80566 27.5 Ventura C Camarillo 100.0 57077 35740 11881 33.2 17773 49.7 41.6 54.2 1110 1.9 4955 8.7 8869 15.5 C Moorpark 100.0 31415 15508 5177 33.4 7257 46.8 42.5 53.6 598 1.9 2150 6.8 8735 27.8 C Ojai 100.0 7862 4872 2023 41.5 1811 37.2 51.4 39.3 75 1.0 180 2.3 1245 15.8 C San Buenaventu 100.0 100916 60269 24860 41.2 23092 38.3 48.5 45.2 2029 2.0 4104 4.1 24573 24.3 C Simi Valley 100.0 111351 61217 19259 31.5 29940 48.9 40.4 55.2 1855 1.7 8449 7.6 18729 16.8 C Thousand Oaks 100.0 117005 71725 22213 31.0 35563 49.6 42.5 53.4 1642 1.4 8199 7.0 15328 13.1 U Casa Conejo 100.0 3180 1874 565 30.1 914 48.8 41.7 53.3 40 1.3 139 4.4 502 15.8 U El Rio 100.0 6193 2376 1494 62.9 461 19.4 70.7 25.9 102 1.6 118 1.9 4791 77.4 U Meiners Oaks 100.0 3750 1993 770 38.6 750 37.6 45.6 45.7 28 0.7 56 1.5 866 23.1 U Mira Monte 100.0 7177 4346 1650 38.0 1757 40.4 42.4 49.6 47 0.7 137 1.9 951 13.3 U Oak Park 100.0 2320 1355 580 42.8 554 40.9 56.5 41.2 3 0.1 110 4.7 101 4.4 U Oak View 100.0 4199 2271 880 38.7 889 39.1 42.6 50.1 34 0.8 54 1.3 819 19.5 R Remainder 80.8 50043 27399 9366 34.2 12908 47.1 43.5 51.3 848 1.7 2493 5.0 9771 19.5 Sum 502488 290945 100718 34.6 133669 45.9 43.7 51.4 8411 1.7 31144 6.2 95280 19.0 Sum 846791 496419 182802 36.8 210585 42.4 45.5 48.8 18574 2.2 50620 6.0 181900 21.5
24th Congressional District:
Population (Based on 2000 Census): 639,088
Cities:
Ventura County: Camarillo, Fillmore, Moorpark, Ojai, Santa Paula, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, and Ventura.
Santa Barbara County: Buellton, Lompoc and Solvang.
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