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Graf was a religious right creationist conservative in a marginal district, not all that friendly to that cohort. I suspect a lot of my wing of the party ran for the exits. His opponent was an attractive woman who came across as a soothing moderate, and had some chamber of commerce type support. Graf was toast from the minute he got the nomination.

What is true is that making illegal immigration a signature issue does not seem to round up many swing voters. I don't think the issue caused many votes to switch either way in either the 5th or 8th district in Arizona.

Graf was a religious right creationist conservative in a marginal district, not all that friendly to that cohort. I suspect a lot of my wing of the party ran for the exits.

States like NH may already be gone, and Colorado, Arizona and Nevada are showing signs of slipping away because of these issues. Moderates are souring on the Republican Party because of perception issues. I recall "back in the day" when a Republican could easily win a California Congressional district that had a 10% Democrat registration edge because the Pubbie would get the indies and get a large Dem crossover vote. No longer.