I actually think there's a good chance that Rudy will win the Republican Presidential nomination, and then go on to win the general election in 2008. Two strong points he has going for him are (1) He's a likeable politician who connects with voters much better than McCain and many others, and (2) He would make a strong Presidential candidate, at least as strong as McCain, and right now Republicans desperately want a winner in 2008.
Rudy's two big weaknesses with Republican primary voters are guns and abortion. But I agree that both of those are finessable. On the gun issue, he can easily consign it to the "states's rights" bin and say that he won't be promoting any more restrictive federal legislation. The Right to Keep and Bear Arms has lost much of its urgency as an issue, now that more and more Democrats are terrified of it, and the Assault Weapons Ban has expired (with no horrific consequences), and CCW reform and no-retreat laws are continuing to spread among the states. We are no longer in imminent danger of losing our 2nd Amendment rights, so it won't matter as much who occupies the White House as long as the person isn't a crusading gun-grabber.
On the abortion issue, Rudy can promise to appoint "originalist" judges who will respect the Constitution, and that will probably be sufficient. I'm much more worried about the kind of judges McCain would appoint, since he'll filter out anyone who might respect the Constitution enough to overturn his campaign finance laws. Most pro-life Republican primary voters (in contrast to many Freepers) will understand that they are not going to be able to elect a President who is explicitly dedicated to reversing Roe v Wade. The best they can hope for is a President who will appoint more judges like Alito and Roberts, and then see if that leads to some revisions in the Supreme Court's abortion guidelines (e.g., permitting bans on partial birth abortions, and permitting parental notification laws, and permitting some restrictions on third-trimester abortions).
You wrote: "On the abortion issue, Rudy can promise to appoint 'originalist' judges who will respect the Constitution, and that will probably be sufficient."
You're right.
That would work.
He doesn't have to PERSONALLY believe in the cause of saving babies, so long as he's willing to compromise in ways that advance the football.
Fine.
He does that, I'm with him.
I've always said that I'd give the gays their marriages in exchange for their support to save the babies.
I have thought for some time that if Rudy gets right with the Federalist Society on judges, that will be all that matters to the Base. Basically, what Rudy has to say is that he'll follow President Bush's example on judges and appoint judges like Roberts and Alito to the High Court. The Base will go nuts.
That answer works well for abortion and RKBA issues.
The DNC press release reaked of fear and anxiety. They don't want to run against Mr. 9/11.
Rudy knows that he has to square himself proper with the NRA. That's the critical issue, much more so than abortion. RKBA is the civil religion of the Republican Party and one has to acknowledge fidelity to the 2nd Amendment to do that.
That's one of the reasons I think Rudy, if nominated, picks Condi as the VP. Aside from the fact that she'll knock Obama around in any debate and make him look like a small child, she's got an absolutely heroic reputation among gunowners for her standing on RKBA issues.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Third trimester abortions ARE partail birth abortions.