Any US or Allied surface combatants who are caught without effective air cover will be slaughtered just like what the Japanese did to the British Repulse and Prince of Wales and to the American-British-Dutch-Australian (ABDA?) task force that attempted to halt their aggression into the Dutch East Indies in early 1942.
If the Chinese use their submarines like the Germans used their U-boats in WW1 and WW2 to cut the supply lines to our outposts in the Far Pacific (not like the Japanese who preferred to send their subs after our warships), it will be very hard to ensure that these bases have enough essential supplies (food and ammo) for the troops based there, to say nothing of the local population, as most of these islands have to rely upon outside food sources for their continued survival.
If the Chinese are able to gain a measure of self-sufficiency, it will take nothing less than a full-scale invasion of mainland China to force their capitulation in a war. Just constructing enough troop transports, supply ships, landing craft, and other essential equipment to mount such a massive invasion (you'd have to put 8-10 divisions on the ground in the first 48 hours if you are going to stand a chance of securing an effective beachhead) will require several years, especially since most of the shipyards that built the landing fleets that launched simultaneous assaults on Normandy and Saipan have long since been swallowed up by urban sprawl. New shipyards will have to be constructed before any major construction projects can begin, which will take at least four or five months, if all of the red tape is cut.
I believe the US would prevail in such a conflict, but it will be longer and bloodier than any war in our history. In fact, the length of the conflict and the casualty counts will probably be close to what you listed in your book, Dragon's Fury.