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Kosovo Status: Delay Is Risky

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

11 Oct 06 (crisisgroup.org) - The Kosovo final status process risks breaking down the further the decision is pushed back into 2007. The six-nation Contact Group that has sponsored the process must at a minimum deliver a timely endorsement of the settlement package that UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari should present before the end of January. The UN Security Council must also pass a resolution superseding 1244 (1999) to allow the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) to transfer its responsibilities to Kosovo’s government and pave the way for new international bodies being readied by the EU. Acting together, the U.S. and the EU need to show the political will to recognize Kosovo as independent, and fend off partition moves from Serbia and the Serb north of Kosovo.

How some key actors will behave remains unpredictable. Russia may refuse consensus in the Contact Group and block decisions in the Security Council; not all EU member states are at ease with the likely outcome. While it is uncertain whether Serbia will offer serious or only token resistance to Kosovo independence, it will certainly support the Serb north’s bid to break completely with independent Kosovo. But the two thirds of Kosovo Serbs south of the Ibar River are not yet planning to leave: will Belgrade urge them to flee Kosovo or allow them to come to terms with the new state of affairs? Another question is whether the U.S. and EU will put resources behind repeated verbal commitments not to allow partition.

The direction in which matters seem to be moving offers much potential for instability. Due primarily to Russia, the Security Council will likely endorse only the narrowest of formulas for Kosovo’s independence. Ahtisaari will have to strip his settlement package of all symbolic and some functional elements of independence to get it through the Council.

Despite international officials’ denials, the settlement taking shape may resemble Bosnia’s Dayton Agreement more than Macedonia’s Ohrid. The prerogatives contemplated for the projected post-status International Community Representative are growing, and a less complete transfer of power to Kosovo’s own government is being envisaged. Kosovo’s deep Albanian-Serb cleavage, and fears of the latter’s exodus or suppression, have prompted Ahtisaari to craft decentralization provisions that largely insulate most Kosovo Serbs from Pristina and give Belgrade continuing influence. The hope is that this will aid a peaceful, stable transition. The price will be difficult institutional arrangements that it may be necessary to disentangle later for EU accession purposes.

Kosovo’s relative stability over the past year should not encourage the international community to imagine it has the luxury of finessing both sides. It has already indulged a Serbian constitutional process intended to undermine the international community’s plans for Kosovo, helping thereby to consolidate Belgrade behind retrogressive electoral practices and ideologies of the Milosevic era. Ahtisaari agreed on 10 November to delay presentation of his proposal after Belgrade set a definite 21 January 2007 date for parliamentary elections.

It is important that no further slippage take place. Further delay would be taken in Belgrade not as a cue to cooperate with an orderly Kosovo process but as a further opportunity to wreck it. Kosovo Albanian social and political fragility offer Belgrade a last opportunity to change the outcome. And delay much into 2007 would severely test Kosovo Albanian cohesion. Politicians have promised their constituents independence this year and have articulated no vision for the period after. They have marginal capacity to implement precisely the complex choreography the international community envisages as producing independence.

The longer the Kosovo Albanians are forced to wait, the greater the chance they will discredit themselves with unilateral independence moves or riots. The pendulum of international support and sympathy would then swing away from them, as after the March 2004 riots. That would virtually finish prospects for retaining the Serbs of the north in a multi-ethnic Kosovo and see many leave the south. Instead of finally closing the question of western Balkan borders with an orderly Kosovo settlement, a new destabilizing chapter would be opened.

RECOMMENDATIONS

To the Contact Group (U.S., UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia):

1. Act without delay on the settlement package to be presented by UN envoy Ahtisaari, and without watering it down.

To the United Nations Security Council:

2. Pass at the earliest opportunity a resolution that endorses the Ahtisaari package; supersedes Resolution 1244 (1999); brings to an end the UN Mission in Kosovo and redistributes its powers to Kosovo’s government and the new international presences stipulated in the Ahtisaari package.

“Austria Press”: Ahtisaari’s Proposal To Become Public In March 2007

11 Nov 06 (Radio Kosova) – “Austria Press” news agency, quoting foreign diplomats said that Ahtisaari is planning to make public his proposal for the status of Kosova at the Security Council in March 2007.

Ahtisaari’s spokesperson, Jua Jiang, did not confirm this information, but she said that “no dates have been set”. “Our new step will be the continuance of our work on the proposal, and consultations with the International negotiator”, said Jiang. “It depends on the will of both sides if they decide to continue the negotiations to reach a consensus on the technical issues”, stated Jiang.

now, let's revisit reality and determine if they are ready for independence as of today...........

"I received a report from sources within Kosovo as of today 13 November 06. It has long be forecasted that if the UN does not give the Albanians what they want, the population would rise up and "bite the hand that feeds" them. These groups have been against UNMIK before, from shooting UNMIK CivPol Officers, to one incident where a CivPol Red and White was blown up in broad daylight while en-route and with a remote controlled explosive device. This sick act was caught on film via an outside security camera, for starters. My source believes that even now the situation has become even more serious and “troublesome”.

The groups are distributing flyers or putting toilets in front of the gate which was just a bothersome tactic. However, a K-Albanian group has now threatened to put explosive devices on UN vehicles. The group responsible for this is reportedly the Self-Determination group or Kurti's group, that is threatening to put explosive devices on the vehicles. This has apparently caused UN Security to distribute warnings to staff members to check under their vehicles and in addition, there have been reports of a few individuals that are apparently starting to tamper with the UN vehicles creating potentially deadly consequences. Reportedly, and only a few days ago, the entire wheel of one of the UNMIK 4Runners came off while the staff member was driving the vehicle.

While investigating the incident, Investigators discovered that someone had tampered with the wheel and the bolts removed. This coincides with another threat against UN vehicles where a certain extremist group said they would deflate tires and otherwise vandalize the vehicles in itself is not new.

Finally, another recent activity of the Self-Determination Group has been in the Gnjilane region. Members of this group have been apparently stepping in front of moving UN vehicles thereby forcing the drivers to apply emergency braking procedures and then either accosting the drivers or attempting to put stickers on the vehicles. Reports are also coming in that members of the group have been attempting to spit on international staff members while walking or driving. "