No surprise to some of us. I voted for him but I also recognize that McClintock has a charisma problem. This is politics not brain surgery, he needs to find somebody else to carry his message.
the polls, as a whole, were RIGHT ON THE MARK.
They were incredibly accurate in many instances--the VA race being a good example--as the RCP poll aggregation showed Webb with a tiny lead on Allen--exactly the outcome that occurred.
The vast majority of the polls told us exactly what we would see on election day--and only a small percentage ended up being outside the margin of error. Regardless of the biases (real and perceived), most polls were CORRECT.
I think every one should remember that next time--when everyone starts trashing polls because they don't like what they say.
I know I should have voted more then three times
Is there a list somewhere that tells the % of turnout for each state and compares it to other years?
Great victory for Iran.
This is BS. I live in a Republican district in the Inland Empire, and there was a high turnout. Maybe there were more of us stuck with filling out provisional ballots than it seems, leading some to the erroneous conclusion that we didn't show up.
"The conservative Republican base didn't show up.''
Arnold is doing to the Calfornia GOP what Pataki did in New York, destroying it by telling them they might as well submit. The California GOP needs to dump Arnold, lose the executive office once and come back stronger afterwards; while its still in the Union.
That's what happens when you have a pro-homo, pro-gun-grabber, pro-Hollyweird, pro-abortion liberal posing as a Republican at the top of the ticket running against an even more liberal Democrat. Conservative Republicans stay home.
If they didn't show up at the polls then how could they be voters?
Drive by media at its best.
I'd really like to find out :
1) What the turnout was of Republicans compared to Democrats was in 2006. We've been assured by the Rove GOTV machine that it would be as large if not larger than 2004. It didn't seem to look that way.
2) If the turnout as large for both parties ( as it seems so ), how many cross-voters were there ? In other words, how many the Dems voters voted GOP and how many of the GOP voters voted Dem ? I suspect the later was larger than the former.
3) Independents are 26% of the general electorate. How many of these voted Democrat ? THIS IS THE DECIDING AND SIGNIFICANT FACTOR.
And WHAT ISSUES motivated Independents to move towards the Dems ?
By looking at these factors, we can probably better assess what went wrong. You won't know where you're going unless you know where you're coming from.
I suspect they'll be a MASSIVE EPIDEMIC of not only 'voter's remorse', but also 'non-voters' remorse'.
Wait 'til the early pullout in Iraq leads to the reprocussions of limp-wristed tactics against the WOT come to rear their ugly heads. Not to mention the loss of momentum in the whole middle east.
The RATS had better enjoy their tenure of House control. It may be short-lived.
How much did McClintock lose by?
This article is accurate. I watched the election returns for California very carefully Tuesday night, and I had detailed data which I had saved on my computer from Tom's 2002 Controller race to compare it against. Tom built up an early lead of over 180,000 votes from absentee ballots, which was far larger than his biggest lead of about 130,000 votes in 2002. I expected Tom's lead to diminish during the night, as it characteristically does for Republicans, but I thought it would still be enough to win.
California's large conservative Republican counties (Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Ventura) typically are among the last to report their results, and their votes are needed to counter the heavily liberal northern counties such as San Francisco and Alameda as well as somewhat less liberal but enormous Los Angeles. This time the votes weren't coming in. Turnout in Republican counties was poor, so even though they went even more heavily for Tom than in 2002 he ended up losing by about 300,000 votes compared to roughly 30,000 votes in 2002.
The pre-election polling looked very good for Tom, but it assumed a turnout model for Republicans which was way off this year.
Yes...it's gonna leave a mark, and it's time to put a steak on it and get on to the next election....
Heh heh heh ...
So if they stayed home rather than vote for a RINO Gov, they denied their state of a potentially great Lt. Governor (McClintock) and would've been 2010 Governor Candidate.
Comparing 2006 to 2002, since '02 was also a gubernatorial election, the turnout in GOP counties in California was generally worse, although the overall turnout percentage also decreased.
Among the 21 counties with over 150k registered voters each, totalling 88.5% of California's 15.8 million registered voters, red(Bush) counties generally had significant turnout percentage losses, while blue(Kerry) counties had minor losses or even modest gains. Blue counties generally had better turnout than red counties in 2006, whereas turnout was more uniform in 2002.
Below is a table of the registration and turnout data for the top 21 counties, as of Nov 12, 2006, sorted by gain in the percentage of voter turnout.
2002 2002 2002 2006 2006 2006 '06-'02 2004 President Reg'd Ballots % Reg'd Ballots % Turnout Red/Blue County Name Voters Cast Turnout Voters Cast Turnout Gain County vote ____________________________________________________________________________________ Sacramento 577156 320222 55.4 624444 254901 40.8 -14.6 even (Kerry, barely) Riverside 649670 309952 47.7 754986 260591 34.5 -13.2 Bush Ventura 391160 199708 51 391077 156283 40 -11 Bush San Bernardino 616402 294151 47.7 751652 276454 36.8 -10.9 Bush San Joaquin 247624 123783 49.9 270356 112965 41.8 -8.1 Bush Alameda 662339 350914 52.9 678765 306810 45.2 -7.7 Kerry Kern 259786 138087 53.1 289233 132106 45.7 -7.4 Bush San Luis Obispo 140659 83903 59.6 155495 81290 52.3 -7.3 Bush Santa Barbara 194672 115488 59.3 183890 96417 52.4 -6.9 Kerry San Mateo 332070 174449 52.5 350427 162810 46.5 -6 Kerry Stanislaus 212642 95175 44.7 207162 81454 39.3 -5.4 Bush Orange 1298892 641784 49.4 1497365 670270 44.8 -4.6 Bush San Francisco 449396 224990 50 418285 190186 45.5 -4.5 Kerry Placer 154130 87059 56.4 177539 93956 52.9 -3.5 Bush Contra Costa 484640 268415 55.3 486441 260155 53.5 -1.8 Kerry San Diego 1411808 683062 48.3 1381835 666650 48.2 -0.1 Bush Fresno 344359 155205 45 331968 154177 46.4 1.4 Bush Los Angeles 3976189 1768369 44.4 3914138 1839366 47 2.6 Kerry Santa Clara 731633 373267 51 749866 404401 53.9 2.9 Kerry Sonoma 232808 124870 53.6 234891 138128 58.8 5.2 Kerry Solano 175819 91280 51.9 163235 98881 60.6 8.7 Kerry ____________________________________________________________________________________ Statewide 15303469 7594228 49.6 15837108 7334443 46.3 -3.3 Kerry
This phenomenon is noticeable especially among the largest counties by voter registration, the top five of which together comprise 52.4% of the state's registered voters. It is very apparent that three of the five largest Bush counties had double-digit depressed turnout compared to 2002 and the large Kerry counties had higher rates of voter turnout compared to large Bush counties in 2006.
Below is a table of the registration and turnout data for the top 21 counties, as of Nov 12, 2006, sorted by the number of registered voters in 2006.
2002 2002 2002 2006 2006 2006 '06-'02 2004 President Reg'd Ballots % Reg'd Ballots % Turnout Red/Blue County Name Voters Cast Turnout Voters Cast Turnout Gain County vote ____________________________________________________________________________________ Los Angeles 3976189 1768369 44.4 3914138 1839366 47 2.6 Kerry Orange 1298892 641784 49.4 1497365 670270 44.8 -4.6 Bush San Diego 1411808 683062 48.3 1381835 666650 48.2 -0.1 Bush Riverside 649670 309952 47.7 754986 260591 34.5 -13.2 Bush San Bernardino 616402 294151 47.7 751652 276454 36.8 -10.9 Bush Santa Clara 731633 373267 51 749866 404401 53.9 2.9 Kerry Alameda 662339 350914 52.9 678765 306810 45.2 -7.7 Kerry Sacramento 577156 320222 55.4 624444 254901 40.8 -14.6 even (Kerry, barely) Contra Costa 484640 268415 55.3 486441 260155 53.5 -1.8 Kerry San Francisco 449396 224990 50 418285 190186 45.5 -4.5 Kerry Ventura 391160 199708 51 391077 156283 40 -11 Bush San Mateo 332070 174449 52.5 350427 162810 46.5 -6 Kerry Fresno 344359 155205 45 331968 154177 46.4 1.4 Bush Kern 259786 138087 53.1 289233 132106 45.7 -7.4 Bush San Joaquin 247624 123783 49.9 270356 112965 41.8 -8.1 Bush Sonoma 232808 124870 53.6 234891 138128 58.8 5.2 Kerry Stanislaus 212642 95175 44.7 207162 81454 39.3 -5.4 Bush Santa Barbara 194672 115488 59.3 183890 96417 52.4 -6.9 Kerry Placer 154130 87059 56.4 177539 93956 52.9 -3.5 Bush Solano 175819 91280 51.9 163235 98881 60.6 8.7 Kerry San Luis Obispo 140659 83903 59.6 155495 81290 52.3 -7.3 Bush ____________________________________________________________________________________ Statewide 15303469 7594228 49.6 15837108 7334443 46.3 -3.3 Kerry
Hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots have not been counted yet, so I'm not sure whether or not these turnout numbers for 2006 reflect those remaining ballots. These remaining ballots are unlikely to influence the outcome of the propositions or statewide offices, since so many people stayed away from the polls.
If turnout had been encouraged in GOP counties, perhaps Secretary of State Bruce McPherson might have overcome his 3% vote deficit to win reelection, State Senator Tom McClintock might have overcome his 4% vote deficit to win Lieutenant Governor, or Prop 90 (restrictions on eminent domain abuse) might have overcome the 5% vote deficit to pass.
These turnout data show that California voters haven't changed their views on conservative values; instead, many voters more likely to vote conservatively simply stayed home.
btt