[Note: For brevity's sake, the table above displays the results for Joe Lieberman in the Republican column, although Lieberman ran under the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party and has pledged to caucus with the Democrats in the Senate].
Posted on 11/09/2006 6:42:41 AM PST by finnman69
Despite exhaustion and sleep deprivation, we want to take a few minutes today to a very quick and very preliminary look at how the preelection polls did as compared to yesterday's results. Since some precincts are still out and some absentee and provisional ballots are still being coutned, this quick looks is inherently preliminary and subject to change, but at the statewide level, the average of the last five polls in each races did reasonably well. In every case that we have examined so far, the leader in the average of the preelection polls was the leader on election day.
The following table includes only the most competitive Senate races that we tracked for the Slate Election Scorecard. It shows the curernt unofficial result in each state as compared to our final last-5-poll average. Since the preliminary results we gathered had been rounded to the nearest whole digit, we did the same with the final average. Again, every leader in the polls ran ahead yesterday.
[Note: For brevity's sake, the table above displays the results for Joe Lieberman in the Republican column, although Lieberman ran under the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party and has pledged to caucus with the Democrats in the Senate].
The list of the most competitive Gubernatorial races shows the same pattern. While the averagse did not predict the winners perfectly, the leader in the prelection polls was the leader on election day in every case.
We hope to have a far more comprehensive analysis in a few days looking at more races and using vote return data that is closer to complete. And these comparisons obviously make no effort to allocate undecided voters or use any of the more sophisticated measures of survey error. But for now, the bottom line is that the last-five-poll averages gave a pretty good impression of the likely outcomes of each of these competitive races.
Given the final result of the evening, it's a bit surprising to see that of the 12 open seats Republicans defended yesterday, they actually managed to win five of them. Here is how the list breaks down:
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GOP Open Seats Won By Democrats
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District
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Cook PVI
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Result
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Spread
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AZ-8
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R +1
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54-42
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D +12
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IA-1
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D +5
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55-43
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D +12
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NY-24
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R +1
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54-45
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D +9
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WI-8
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R +4
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51-49
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D +2
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OH-18*
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R +6
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62-36
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D +26
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TX-22*
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R +15
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52-42
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D +12
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FL-16*
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R +2
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49-48
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D +1
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Average
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R +3.4
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53.8-43.6
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D +10.2
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As you can see, three of the seats on this list were lost to scandal and/or corruption. Wisconsin 8 is the only one that jumps out as a seat Republicans are probably disappointed in losing.
Now here are the five seats Republicans defended:
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GOP Open Seats Successfully Defended
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District
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Cook PVI
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Result
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Spread
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CO-5
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R +17
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59-41
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R +18
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FL-13
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R +4
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50-50
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TIE
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IL-6
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R +3
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51-49
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R +2
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MN-6
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R +5
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50-42
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R +8
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NV-2
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R +2
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51-45
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R +6
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Average
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R +6.2
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52.2-45.4
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R +6.8
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As I wrote earlier today, I agree with the analysis that Iraq was the dominant factor in last night's election. But not every race fits neatly into that box, as is evident by looking at this list. With the exception of FL-13, where the Republican underperformed the district's Cook PVI (Partisan Voting Index), the Republican margin of victory in the other four races met or exceeded the partisan orientation of the district.
That's not what one would expect to see - especially with respect to open seats in only moderately Republican leaning districts - given anti-Republican tide we saw in motion last night. But for whatever reason, the Democratic surge didn't materialize in these districts. There are any number of factors at play in each race that could help account for this, including financial advantage, quality of challenger, and superior GOTV.
But even among that group, Illinois 6 stands out as an anomaly. In an anti-Republican year with Iraq as a backdrop to the entire election, how did Republican Peter Roskam defeat a well-financed, double amputee veteran of the war in a moderate GOP district? I know Roskam had a superior GOTV effort, but my hunch is that he - and probably the others in the group of open seats as well - may have benefitted from the fact they weren't incumbents this year and thus were spared, to at least some degree, the wrath that voters inflicted on Republicans elsewhere around the country last night.
2006 Senate RealClearPolitics Poll Averages |
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RCP was 14 for 14 on the Senate and 20 for 21 with Governors (they missed the GOP win in MN where Pawlety won by 1%)
Larry Sabato was 15 for 15 with his Senate picks
he also picked Dems to gain 29 house seats. Dead on.
He picked Dems to gain 7 Governorships, they gained 6.
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BUMP for later
RCP Final Average 11/01 - 11/05 - 40.6 52.1 Dems +11.5
FOX News 11/04 - 11/05 900 LV 36 49 Dems +13.0
CNN 11/03 - 11/05 636 LV 38 58 Dems +20.0
USA Today/Gallup 11/02 - 11/05 1362 LV 44 51 Dems +7.0
ABC News/Wash Post 11/01 - 11/04 LV 45 51 Dems +6.0
Pew Research 11/01 - 11/04 LV 43 47 Dems +4.0
Newsweek 11/02 - 11/03 838 LV 38 54 Dems +16.0
Time 11/01 - 11/03 679 LV 40 55 Dems +15.0
Sucks that this has to be the year they got it right
I said in my mea culpa, "Losers and Winners," that the pollsters were big winners this cycle. That's bad news, because now polling will be used as leverage to convince people of trends.
Thanks, great work.
Bookmark
Let's see the House figures. Some of those, dims won by 1000 votes or less.
LLS
You might want to reconsider blaming the pollsters for the candidates losses rather than the candidates themselves.
Out of control spending, inaction on immigration, subpar campaigning, and some unethical behavior did the most damage, none of which was caused by the pollsters. People did not stay home because of pollsters. That's utterly ridiculous.
Regarding the statement on past election results, it's mostly untrue. Generally there are polling firms with excellent track records and the avergaing of these polls has once again proven to be a pretty reliable indicator.
Who's actively working for the Democrats?
BTTT
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