Ping!
Here's my theory about the 2006 elections. We got zapped, because independents soured on corruption (Ney/Foley) and Iraqi.
Here's my theory. Too many Republicans are in wishful thinking and not honest about objective reality.
That reality varies from district to district, candidate to candidate. But it has some similarities.
To quote Standard Oil's John Swearingen: "You expect more from Republicans ... and you'd better get it."
You expect Dems to be in sex and bribery scandals. You are seldom disappointed.
You expect Republicans to be moral, honest, etc. When you are disappointed, you react accordingly.
The Dems (and MSM) were able to take a small reality and exaggerate it into an image that Republicans were generally corrupt hypocrites.
Disappointed Republicans were motivated to stay home. I think analysis will show that a significant part of those who provided the big turnout for Bush in 2004 stayed home this time. Meanwhile a significant part of the big turnout for Kerry again turned out this time.