The figure I gave before for OH-02 was in error because I was using the estimate number of uncounted ballots for all of Hamilton County instead of just the part in Schmidt's district.
Based on the latest reports of the number of ballots left to be counted, the percentages that each challenger would need in order to overturn the latest winning margin is: 58.84% for Kilroy to beat Pryce; 80.48% for Wulsin to beat Schmidt; 67.76% for Madrid to beat Wilson.
To state the self-evident, the only one that seems all too likely at all is OH-15. So while they all bear watching, the OH-15 and WA-08 races are the only ones really up in the air it seems to me.
That's for the initial count of course. Recounts might switch CT-02, NC-08, or FL-13, though the odds are quite low I'd say, unless they figure out how to read unrecorded touchscreen votes in Sarasota County, in which case the odds would be quite high.
Couldn't PA-08 switch in a recount as well? The margin was only 1,500 votes prior to overseas absentees being counted.
One problem with your analyis of Pryce is that you assume that all of the provisional ballots are valid. The second problem is that you assume the half that are absentee ballots will have a Dem bias. I suspect the opposite is true, and it seems to be borne out by looking at the individual precincts. Provisional ballots will have a Dem bias, but again I don't see that much a pattern suggesting they are bunched precincts. I think Kilroy has no more than a 5% chance of winning. We shall see.