Looking at the VA Senate, I noticed Allen ran behind Bush's numbers in Va Beach and Norfolk. Do you suppose military families, unhappy with Iraq, flipped over to the dark side as a protest to Iraqi policy?
Allen did as well in the 2nd C.D. as did Thelma Drake (see my make-shift table below), a freshman incumbent who draw a well-financed challenger. So, we can't really say that Allen failed to appeal to the military community. Here's what we can say: He didn't run up a good margin in the military community when he faced a Vietnam Veteran conservative-sounding Democrat.
While Allen did o.k. in the 1st compared to the Republican congressional candidate there, he didn't as well as well in the 10th C.D. as did Frank Wolf, an entrenched incumbent who also draw a well-financed challenger.
Therefore, we can suspect that Allen didn't do well enough in northern Virginia. Indeed, Allen's numbers in Fairfax County were well behind each of the three Republican congressional candidates (Wolf, another incumbent, and a challenger) whose districts are at least partially in that county.
In all other Congressional districts featuring an incumbent Republican, Allen ran behind the Republican congressional candidate. But, this isn't really a knock on Allen, because the Democratic challengers in these other districts were not well-funded.
C.D. Allen's % v Rep Cong Cand and his or her %
1st 56 v J.Davis-63
2nd 51 v Drake-51 (well-funded Dem. challenger)
3rd 31 v NA (blue district)
4th 54 v Forbes-76
5th 54 v Goode-59
6th 58 v Goodelatte-75
7th 57 v Cantor-64
8th 30 v Odonoghue-31 (entrenched Dem. incumbent) (blue district)
9th 55 v Carrico-32 (entrenched Dem. incumbent)(red district)(one day we'll take this seat)
10th 59 v Wolf-57 (well-funded Dem. challenger)
11th 44 v T.Davis-56 (purple district)