CLAY--about 50/50, population 180k
JASPER---very heavy republican--maybe 70/30 population 100k
PEMISCOT--slight dem, population 20k
POLK--heavy republican 65/35, 25k
Would be my guess.
If you run those numbers (which may not be accurate, assuming that 25% are voters you get a pick up of about 14k votes --very very rough.
I am told that the percentage of voters would be much higher than 25% of population. That is likley correct --in 2002 Clay County had 59,000 voters.
If so, and if those counties are all that remain to report (absentee votes? St. Louis reserve precincts?) then Talent might just make it.
Maybe.