I hate to say this but if that's the case he's not going to pull it off.
I'm now projecting Burns to lose by 1583 votes.
What happened?
One thing that happened is Cascade County (Grand Falls), came in a lot closer than it did in 2000. Burns lost the county by 1,990 votes in 2000 (52-46), but ended up only losing by 155 votes (49-49) this time round.
Why? I have no clue. Both of his opponents in 2000 and 2006 were from nearby counties (well, by Montana standards - 100 miles or so away).