"The tough one to figure out is Meagher which has 0% reporting, anybody has any history of Meagher from 2004?"
It's tiny. Only 1000 voted in 2004, but they went overwhelmingly Republican.
Not even 1000 voted in Meagher in 2000 - only 929 did. The neighboring counties pretty much fell in line with what they did in 2000, plus or minus a percent or two. There's no reason to think that Burns wouldn't pick up another 350 votes or so there.