What exactly is an exit poll and how can they be so confident of the results?
In some precincts, they ask people after they voted who they voted for. It's voluntary, and subject to bias.
They ask people how they voted when they come out the door of the polling places, then measure the results against how that particular precinct did last time.
It's supposed to work because the samples are quite large compared to phone polls. I have now idea how they calculate for absentee voters, which has gotten to be as much as 30% of the electorate in some areas and heavily GOP. And, if you recall, in 2004, the exit polls were worthless. The pressure is on the networks to be "the first to call" which may lead to some serious gambling based on misperceptions. Rove has warned not to put too much weight on exit polls This Year.
I was on another thread where someone claiming to be a poli sci major was giving someone hell for telling pro-lib lies on an exit poll because next elections politicians would supposedly base their positions on this elections exit polls and therefor become ever increasingly liberal.
If that really explains the GOPs headlong rush toward socialism then its time to grab the rifles. Liberals are proud to run off at the mouth to anyone who will listen to their opinions and conservatives are either not going to answer because its no ones GD business or intentionally falsify the responses to throw a wrench in the poll. Why could anyone actually derive accurate position information (as though I would vote for such a coward) from data that screwed up?
Seriously, can anyone help set the record straight here?