EVANS-NOVAK POLITICAL REPORT SPECIAL(Week of November 6, 2006)

Human Events ^ | November 6, 2006 | Robert Novak

[2ndDivisionVet]

Democrats are set to gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and five governorships in tomorrow's elections. It is a sign of Republicans' sorry state that, at this point, this is actually a very favorable outlook for them.

In the last day of the midterm election campaign, we offer a final run-down of how candidates are doing in each contested district or state. We aim to give a complete forecast on tomorrow's competitive election contests in this final-hour newsletter, which will be followed up by a post-election analysis on Wednesday.

Expectations Game: At this point, there will be no new polls, no major news events capable of significantly disrupting the election cycle.

We know one thing for sure: Republicans are going to lose ground in both houses of Congress. The White House presents, as its rosiest scenario, a loss of 12 House seats. This is not entirely impossible, but it is too optimistic for the realistic observer.

If Democrats fail, it will set off an even worse intra-party bloodbath than came after the 2000 and 2004 elections.

If Democrats succeed, it will be for two reasons:

The first is an arrogant and politically tin-eared Republican establishment in Washington. In the handling of key issues such as the occupation of Iraq, the response to Hurricane Katrina, and a meaningful follow-through on Social Security reform, the White House displayed incompetence.

[finnman69]

I'm happy i'm not the only one who finds MNJohnnie's comments laughable.

[TNCMAXQ]

Anyone remember what they predicted in 1998? I can't recall the pre election punditry but everyone seemed caught by surprise when the Dems gained seats in that 6th year cycle. Though some pollsters, like Pew, picked up the trend towards the Dems in the last weekend. We can hope this is like '98 again, when the president's party defies the odds and does better than expected.

[DB]

You owe some people an apology.

The "gloom and doomers" were correct and you were wrong.

There's also something to be said about Freepers that are in denial. That claim everything thing is fine when it obviously isn't.

If you can't even see the problem before your eyes, you are hardly in a position to tell others how to do something about it.