[Dolphy]

Yes, her final margin was something like 4 points. The polls had her up something close to 10 in the final week.

I found that result to be stunning given Posthumos' lack of name recognition and Granholm's camera friendly profile. With the economy what it is here now I find it hard to believe that Granholm and Stabenow have the leads recent polls have indicated.

[TNCMAXQ]

I wonder if this was the same outfit that showed Bush ahead in MI around a week before the 2004 vote though. ;(

Besides overestimating Demo strength in '02, pollsters also missed John Engler's upset win in 1990. And going way back to 1982 the GOP nominee for governor that year, Dick Headlee, was expected to get trounced but he made a very respectable showing, as I recall. Did better than expected.

[outfield]

I remain suspect of this Mitchell poll for reasons already discussed and from what I can find this is their first poll on the races. The RCP average has Granholm up 10 points, and this seems to be too big of a jump from all other polls. It may be skewing the numbers intentionally to get the vote out, which is understandable.

Overall, DeVos has run a disappointing campaign so far and I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose, which is especially unfortunate for the outcome of MI in '08. Oh well.