FWIW, I took a quick look at the Kaine/Kilgore polls for the day before last year. They had Kaine up by 3-9.
I am hoping that the following will help Allen:
1) Jim Webb has ~yet~ to give reasons to vote FOR him.
2) Anyone paying attention knows that it's the Webb camp that has been flinging the mud.
3) The Marriage Amendment has to help. I just can't believe that Virginia will be the state to defeat that.
If I'm wrong, I'm checking into rehab.
Allen - 52%
Webb - 47%
I have a good feeling about Allen. He will win. I think he will learn a few lessons about his opponents this time and next time whether he runs for his Senate seat again OR president will be stronger for it. He's relatively young, he's conservative and he has alot going for him.
I think the RCP average slightly oversampled kaine's lead by mayby 1-2 points(for kilgore), i forget. I do remember seeing it being close to the 9 side of things.
Random tidbit, but in 1994, 'generic' polling had dems up by 5 or 6% right before the election.
If Allen loses, I don't know. I'll feel like Admiral Beatty at Jutland when he turned to his flag captain and said, "There's something wrong with our bloody ships today."
Honestly though, didn't Kilgore get shellacked in Fairfax County with only 38% of the vote going to him? And didn't Kaine do better around Richmond than most Democrats do? (He was Mayor). Honestly, how could Allen do worse than Kilgore?