if it comes down to 51-49, what are the chances of Chafee switching parties?
He won't. It would disgrace the memory of his deceased father. His family won't hear of it. It won't happen.
He'll do it at 50-50 if it gets him perks from the termites. Believe me, he has no honor. He has already said he would switch.
If Chafee was seriously considering that, he would have done it a long time ago.
"if it comes down to 51-49, what are the chances of Chafee switching parties?"
he wouldnt regardless of family name - it would only bring the Dems to 50 50 Cheney would be the tiebreaker so it is a lose lost proposition if he jumped ship in that scenario